* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HONE CP012024 08/30/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 29 30 35 40 43 44 40 37 34 32 29 30 29 28 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 29 30 35 40 43 44 40 37 34 32 29 30 29 28 V (KT) LGEM 30 28 26 25 24 23 23 24 26 28 28 27 25 23 21 20 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 38 43 46 48 44 30 11 5 5 12 13 18 20 19 17 8 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 0 0 1 -1 -7 -7 -4 -2 0 7 6 6 -5 -7 SHEAR DIR 272 272 275 282 288 278 247 220 12 18 55 76 89 108 114 173 190 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.4 28.2 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.4 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 147 148 148 149 150 148 146 140 140 142 138 142 140 139 139 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -54.5 -54.4 -54.4 -55.3 -55.6 -55.1 -54.2 -54.1 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.6 -0.3 -0.6 -0.4 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 46 47 50 55 60 65 68 71 69 63 62 57 52 48 48 41 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 12 15 16 18 18 19 19 18 18 19 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -1 -1 0 6 32 43 42 44 34 37 42 75 73 66 55 2 200 MB DIV 20 10 2 -13 4 10 18 8 -6 1 -21 -13 -10 5 4 -21 26 700-850 TADV 1 -1 -2 -1 2 3 6 0 0 1 3 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -4 LAND (KM) 1319 1390 1461 1516 1572 1666 1715 1840 2042 2206 2349 2509 2707 2649 2479 2236 1928 LAT (DEG N) 21.4 21.6 21.7 22.0 22.3 23.2 24.3 25.9 26.6 27.0 27.3 28.0 29.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 173.0 173.7 174.4 175.0 175.5 176.4 176.8 177.8 179.7 181.3 182.7 184.2 186.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 9 8 7 7 8 10 9 10 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 40 36 34 35 32 22 19 15 14 11 13 11 9 8 5 6 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 751 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 5. 8. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 3. -3. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 6. 8. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 8. 8. 7. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -9. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 0. 5. 10. 13. 14. 10. 7. 4. 2. -1. 0. -1. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 21.4 173.0 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012024 HONE 08/30/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.72 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 54.7 34.9 to 8.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 220.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.66 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.31 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.0 58.2 to 0.0 0.61 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.10 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% SDCON: 0% .5% .5% 0% 0% .5% 1.0% .5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012024 HONE 08/30/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##