* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HONE CP012024 08/30/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 32 34 38 42 42 40 34 29 27 25 24 25 26 27 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 32 34 38 42 42 40 34 29 27 25 24 25 26 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 29 29 28 28 29 30 28 26 23 21 19 18 17 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 47 49 46 36 35 12 6 6 11 13 21 26 19 22 15 15 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 1 -2 -6 -7 -5 -2 0 0 2 3 -1 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 274 282 290 289 281 244 227 58 53 82 88 87 98 123 138 136 96 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.6 28.2 27.6 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.8 27.4 27.2 27.4 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 148 148 149 151 149 145 139 141 140 140 142 138 136 139 130 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.6 -54.4 -54.4 -54.7 -55.2 -55.4 -55.0 -54.3 -54.4 -54.2 -54.5 -54.5 -54.7 -54.6 -54.5 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.8 -0.8 -0.4 -0.5 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 46 53 60 63 66 68 69 68 62 57 52 52 49 52 52 51 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 8 9 10 11 11 13 13 12 11 10 9 8 8 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -3 5 20 29 42 48 42 40 89 74 65 34 9 -5 -37 -38 200 MB DIV -2 -12 -3 18 17 30 7 -19 11 0 -14 3 3 8 -14 -14 10 700-850 TADV -3 -2 2 0 2 7 4 0 0 1 3 4 3 3 2 1 2 LAND (KM) 1461 1532 1603 1644 1687 1767 1911 2053 2242 2408 2556 2731 2617 2414 2234 1998 1698 LAT (DEG N) 21.7 22.0 22.3 22.8 23.3 24.4 25.4 26.2 26.8 27.3 27.9 28.9 30.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 174.4 175.1 175.8 176.2 176.6 177.3 178.6 179.9 181.7 183.3 184.7 186.3 188.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 7 8 10 10 9 9 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 34 35 31 24 21 21 19 14 13 13 11 9 7 5 4 5 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 742 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 2. 6. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 9. 8. 6. 6. 5. 7. 8. 8. 5. -1. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 2. 4. 8. 12. 12. 10. 4. -1. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 21.7 174.4 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012024 HONE 08/30/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.73 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 53.1 34.9 to 8.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 179.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.70 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.11 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.25 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.6 58.2 to 0.0 0.71 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.01 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 4.0% SDCON: 0% 2.0% 1.0% .5% 0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012024 HONE 08/30/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##