* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HONE CP012024 08/30/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 34 36 41 47 47 44 41 38 37 37 36 39 41 N/A V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 34 36 41 47 47 44 41 38 37 37 36 39 41 N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 30 32 34 33 32 29 27 25 25 26 28 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 49 43 32 30 23 6 5 7 11 13 16 19 16 17 15 14 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 1 -7 -6 -4 -3 -2 2 2 0 -2 -5 -8 N/A SHEAR DIR 282 287 283 273 269 189 351 56 71 71 78 119 122 153 164 194 N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.3 27.6 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.1 27.6 27.6 26.5 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 147 149 151 152 147 139 142 142 141 139 135 140 141 129 N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.6 -54.6 -54.7 -55.1 -55.3 -55.4 -54.5 -54.2 -53.9 -54.2 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -54.2 -54.0 N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.5 0.0 -0.4 -0.5 -1.0 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 60 64 65 68 68 68 64 60 55 52 49 52 52 57 53 N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 10 12 12 14 17 17 17 18 18 18 19 19 20 21 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 3 22 33 36 52 39 46 81 93 82 58 47 40 45 36 N/A 200 MB DIV -10 5 6 8 34 -10 -10 -9 5 -7 -20 -1 25 21 58 17 N/A 700-850 TADV -2 3 0 3 7 4 0 0 0 4 3 3 2 2 2 3 N/A LAND (KM) 1553 1598 1644 1683 1724 1848 2014 2210 2398 2589 2785 2598 2389 2176 1939 1684 N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.3 22.9 23.6 24.2 25.2 26.2 26.7 27.3 28.1 29.2 30.5 32.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x N/A LONG(DEG W) 175.3 175.8 176.2 176.5 176.9 178.0 179.5 181.4 183.2 185.0 186.8 188.3 189.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 8 9 8 9 9 10 9 10 10 11 11 N/A HEAT CONTENT 34 32 26 22 21 21 15 11 13 10 9 6 4 7 6 1 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 749 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. 1. 5. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 9. 10. 9. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 10. 4. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. -0. -3. -5. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. -5. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 5. 9. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. 12. 11. 10. 11. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -9. -9. -9. -7. -5. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 4. 6. 11. 17. 17. 14. 11. 8. 7. 7. 6. 9. 11. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 21.8 175.3 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012024 HONE 08/30/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.73 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 45.8 34.9 to 8.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 147.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.20 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.23 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.8 58.2 to 0.0 0.69 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% SDCON: .5% 2.0% 1.0% .5% 0% .5% 1.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012024 HONE 08/30/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##