* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HONE CP012024 08/31/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 36 41 46 48 47 46 42 38 35 35 33 36 38 38 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 36 41 46 48 47 46 42 38 35 35 33 36 38 38 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 32 34 36 37 36 33 30 28 28 29 32 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 45 37 33 24 13 7 3 9 7 3 10 16 23 19 21 18 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 4 0 -7 -6 -5 0 0 1 1 1 -2 -4 -9 -7 SHEAR DIR 287 286 277 273 239 221 54 33 58 55 118 124 127 140 146 153 168 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.9 28.8 28.1 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.3 26.9 27.0 26.9 27.0 27.4 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 149 150 152 152 144 138 139 140 136 132 133 131 132 138 133 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.5 -54.5 -55.0 -55.2 -55.4 -55.1 -54.4 -54.1 -53.9 -53.8 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 -52.7 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 0.1 0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.6 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 58 62 64 67 66 67 66 60 59 55 54 50 53 54 56 55 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 10 12 12 14 17 18 19 20 20 20 19 19 18 20 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR 4 20 34 37 39 47 42 49 84 64 43 5 2 -2 -11 -30 -56 200 MB DIV 4 -1 20 27 33 9 14 4 18 -10 -11 0 17 16 7 -35 -10 700-850 TADV 2 0 2 4 8 0 0 0 4 5 7 5 5 1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1615 1665 1716 1734 1754 1899 2093 2228 2341 2439 2549 2699 2499 2340 2232 2059 1815 LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.5 23.0 23.6 24.1 25.3 26.2 26.6 27.4 28.3 29.3 30.6 32.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 175.9 176.4 176.9 177.0 177.2 178.5 180.3 181.6 182.6 183.4 184.3 185.5 187.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 7 9 8 6 6 6 7 9 8 6 7 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 34 28 25 23 23 22 13 12 13 10 6 4 3 2 2 7 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 766 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. 1. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 12. 13. 14. 11. 6. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 5. 6. 10. 13. 15. 16. 14. 13. 12. 10. 10. 10. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -11. -9. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 11. 16. 18. 17. 16. 12. 8. 5. 5. 3. 6. 8. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 21.9 175.9 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012024 HONE 08/31/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.74 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 40.7 34.9 to 8.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 134.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.24 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.8 58.2 to 0.0 0.66 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.15 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.5% 12.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.9% 4.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 7.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 11.0% SDCON: .5% 3.5% 1.0% .5% 0% 2.9% 2.6% 5.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012024 HONE 08/31/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##