* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HONE CP012024 08/31/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 32 34 39 44 47 47 46 43 38 36 37 38 40 43 45 V (KT) LAND 30 30 32 34 39 44 47 47 46 43 38 36 37 38 40 43 45 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 32 33 35 36 35 32 28 25 23 23 23 25 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 37 35 21 13 10 3 1 7 6 9 15 19 21 15 17 12 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 0 -6 -4 -5 -1 0 0 1 1 0 -2 -7 -7 -8 SHEAR DIR 283 281 273 242 200 280 349 37 97 104 131 132 139 155 152 143 161 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.8 28.9 28.6 28.1 27.6 27.4 27.4 26.9 26.9 27.3 27.1 27.2 26.9 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 145 147 148 152 153 150 143 138 137 137 132 132 136 134 134 131 125 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.8 -55.3 -55.4 -55.3 -55.5 -54.8 -54.5 -54.1 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.7 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 61 63 64 66 66 68 66 63 58 55 51 54 55 60 59 56 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 12 13 16 17 18 18 19 18 16 16 17 17 17 19 18 850 MB ENV VOR 14 22 28 38 44 43 38 53 57 38 6 -9 -24 -13 -9 -27 -45 200 MB DIV 4 18 25 19 -7 8 5 4 -12 -28 -15 16 12 18 -9 -42 0 700-850 TADV 0 2 6 4 5 0 1 3 4 7 4 4 0 1 0 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 1593 1619 1647 1698 1752 1926 2075 2155 2258 2411 2563 2632 2447 2273 2120 1982 1865 LAT (DEG N) 22.2 22.9 23.5 24.2 24.8 25.7 26.3 26.9 28.0 29.1 30.1 31.5 33.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 175.7 176.0 176.2 176.7 177.1 178.7 180.1 180.8 181.6 182.9 184.2 185.3 185.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 8 8 8 6 5 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 32 26 22 20 20 19 13 9 7 6 3 3 5 3 5 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 712 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -4. -1. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 16. 16. 14. 9. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 8. 11. 12. 12. 8. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 2. 4. 9. 14. 17. 17. 16. 13. 8. 6. 7. 8. 10. 13. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 22.2 175.7 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012024 HONE 08/31/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.74 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.1 34.9 to 8.5 0.11 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 130.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.22 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.15 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.20 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.5 58.2 to 0.0 0.82 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 7.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 48.0% SDCON: .5% 3.5% 1.5% .5% 0% .5% 1.0% 24.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012024 HONE 08/31/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##