* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HONE CP012024 08/31/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 40 43 46 50 47 43 38 32 29 27 28 30 32 34 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 40 43 46 50 47 43 38 32 29 27 28 30 32 34 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 39 39 41 42 40 36 30 25 20 17 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 35 23 16 11 9 1 2 4 6 20 17 22 21 17 7 4 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 0 -6 -8 -6 -3 -2 0 1 -1 2 -2 -1 -4 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 283 278 242 222 222 80 229 66 117 126 140 156 193 206 233 256 336 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.4 28.0 27.4 26.9 26.7 26.7 26.8 27.2 27.3 27.4 26.3 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 143 146 149 148 144 137 132 130 129 131 135 136 137 127 92 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -55.2 -55.2 -55.2 -55.2 -55.1 -54.6 -54.5 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -54.7 -54.4 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.8 -1.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.7 -0.4 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 62 63 65 68 68 68 63 60 54 51 49 51 53 56 56 55 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 11 13 13 13 15 15 15 14 12 10 9 8 7 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 25 27 36 47 44 49 39 42 15 -7 -36 -44 -56 -61 -60 -109 -143 200 MB DIV 31 31 36 6 8 -4 -8 7 -27 -21 -8 11 10 -2 -41 -20 9 700-850 TADV 1 5 7 5 4 1 0 5 3 3 2 1 2 0 -2 1 7 LAND (KM) 1603 1644 1688 1739 1792 1980 2110 2176 2324 2458 2577 2489 2320 2158 2007 1813 1583 LAT (DEG N) 22.3 22.9 23.5 24.2 24.8 25.4 26.6 28.5 29.9 31.1 32.3 33.5 34.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 175.8 176.2 176.6 177.0 177.5 179.3 180.4 180.6 181.7 182.7 183.5 184.3 185.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 28 21 17 17 18 19 12 6 4 2 1 3 7 7 4 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 36.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -12. -8. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 15. 17. 18. 19. 16. 11. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 15. 12. 8. 3. -3. -6. -8. -7. -5. -3. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 22.3 175.8 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012024 HONE 08/31/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.65 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.7 34.9 to 8.5 0.35 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 142.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.27 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 36.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.05 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.17 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.4 58.2 to 0.0 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% SDCON: .5% 2.5% 1.0% .5% .5% .5% .6% .5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012024 HONE 08/31/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##