* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HONE CP012024 09/01/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 40 43 46 48 45 41 36 32 29 28 27 29 28 28 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 40 43 46 48 45 41 36 32 29 28 27 29 28 28 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 38 39 41 43 42 38 33 29 25 23 22 22 22 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 10 5 4 5 3 4 12 14 20 19 21 14 11 18 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -6 -5 -6 -3 -2 -1 2 0 2 -1 -2 -4 -4 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 251 226 235 246 223 252 149 151 127 161 171 193 199 222 238 312 334 SST (C) 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.1 27.8 26.9 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.6 27.1 27.5 26.4 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 144 146 147 148 147 143 141 132 131 129 128 126 128 134 139 127 98 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.1 -55.3 -55.4 -55.2 -54.7 -54.6 -54.5 -54.3 -54.2 -54.5 -54.6 -54.8 -55.2 -55.2 -54.3 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.1 0.0 -0.4 -0.9 -0.8 -0.4 -0.3 -0.5 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.4 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 1 700-500 MB RH 65 68 68 69 70 65 63 57 50 46 48 51 55 59 61 60 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 15 14 15 15 15 13 13 11 9 8 7 7 7 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 33 48 41 39 40 43 51 22 -13 -35 -42 -50 -52 -37 -63 -119 -157 200 MB DIV 21 3 11 15 3 10 0 -29 -27 -22 4 13 -4 -13 -19 -6 0 700-850 TADV 8 8 7 2 2 1 5 6 3 1 0 0 -1 -2 -6 -4 3 LAND (KM) 1677 1709 1745 1849 1955 2071 2117 2210 2279 2401 2537 2496 2416 2262 2051 1860 1706 LAT (DEG N) 23.4 24.2 25.0 25.6 26.2 26.6 28.1 29.8 31.1 32.1 33.0 33.9 34.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 176.5 176.8 177.0 178.0 178.9 180.0 180.1 180.5 180.7 181.6 182.7 183.4 183.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 10 8 5 8 8 6 7 6 4 5 8 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 17 16 15 15 16 13 9 5 9 2 1 1 2 4 5 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 736 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -11. -14. -17. -18. -16. -12. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 16. 17. 19. 21. 21. 18. 13. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 10. 6. 1. -3. -6. -7. -8. -6. -7. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 23.4 176.5 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012024 HONE 09/01/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.66 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 34.9 to 8.5 0.75 4.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 107.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.21 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.24 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.12 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.7 58.2 to 0.0 0.76 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.24 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 14.4% 11.7% 9.6% 7.8% 16.8% 14.7% 11.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 4.8% 3.9% 3.2% 2.6% 5.6% 5.1% 3.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.5% 3.9% 2.4% 2.1% 1.3% 2.8% 2.5% 2.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012024 HONE 09/01/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##