* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HONE CP012024 09/01/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 40 41 43 40 32 26 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 40 41 43 40 32 26 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 36 37 38 37 35 30 26 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 6 2 6 7 5 2 15 10 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -4 -3 -4 -4 0 0 -3 2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 235 265 137 187 231 165 15 93 122 139 161 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.0 27.4 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 146 144 144 143 137 132 131 130 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.2 -55.1 -54.9 -54.8 -54.7 -54.3 -54.2 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.3 -1.0 -0.8 -0.9 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 68 69 67 64 64 58 54 50 50 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 16 16 16 16 14 13 11 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 37 44 39 34 27 -4 -33 -51 -56 -50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 19 28 15 -1 22 -38 -18 -39 -3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 3 2 1 3 4 9 2 2 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1722 1821 1921 1957 1994 1995 2041 2113 2197 2294 2377 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.8 25.1 25.4 25.5 25.6 26.7 28.4 29.9 30.4 30.8 31.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 176.8 177.8 178.7 179.0 179.4 179.2 179.2 179.4 180.1 181.0 181.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 6 3 4 7 8 5 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 17 20 19 18 14 6 7 10 9 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 699 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -11. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 15. 16. 17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 0. -2. -5. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 5. -3. -9. -14. -18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 24.8 176.8 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012024 HONE 09/01/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.66 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 34.9 to 8.5 0.81 5.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 115.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.23 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.14 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.2 58.2 to 0.0 0.81 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.0% 21.9% 15.7% 12.7% 10.5% 21.3% 18.8% 12.9% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 7.4% 5.3% 4.3% 3.5% 7.3% 6.3% 4.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.7% 4.7% 3.1% 2.6% 1.7% 3.6% 3.1% 2.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012024 HONE 09/01/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##