* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVEN AL072024 09/12/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 39 44 49 54 57 61 67 71 77 79 81 86 89 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 39 44 49 54 57 61 67 71 77 79 81 86 89 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 35 38 42 45 49 54 60 65 72 78 83 89 93 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 3 5 7 11 12 2 5 6 5 6 3 6 3 2 2 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 -3 -2 -3 2 -1 2 1 0 -2 -1 -1 -1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 299 261 317 305 304 316 151 254 243 259 259 295 222 236 102 214 264 SST (C) 27.4 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 130 128 129 129 129 129 131 133 135 135 137 138 137 135 136 134 136 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.0 -52.1 -51.7 -51.5 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 73 73 72 72 72 69 67 59 57 55 54 54 55 59 62 64 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 17 18 17 18 18 17 16 16 17 18 20 20 21 23 25 850 MB ENV VOR 47 44 38 29 30 37 52 56 57 57 56 49 56 45 87 123 155 200 MB DIV 40 75 92 84 63 38 55 14 9 5 -5 -17 14 31 36 36 28 700-850 TADV -13 -4 -3 0 -5 -2 -3 -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 -2 0 1 3 10 LAND (KM) 1420 1562 1704 1842 1981 2176 2097 1994 1902 1812 1743 1658 1550 1565 1661 1723 1723 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.7 17.0 17.5 18.0 18.8 19.1 19.5 19.6 19.8 20.0 20.2 20.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 30.7 32.0 33.3 34.5 35.8 38.0 39.5 41.5 42.9 43.9 44.7 45.7 47.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 12 9 8 8 6 4 4 6 4 4 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 11 12 14 15 9 11 15 28 36 43 47 42 30 25 22 24 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 26. 28. 30. 31. 32. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -4. -3. -3. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 14. 19. 24. 27. 31. 37. 41. 47. 49. 51. 56. 59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.3 30.7 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072024 SEVEN 09/12/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.81 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.44 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 101.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.82 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.46 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.58 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 16.5% 10.7% 7.5% 5.0% 11.5% 12.8% 23.2% Logistic: 4.5% 27.3% 14.3% 5.2% 2.6% 9.3% 8.5% 10.9% Bayesian: 1.0% 3.8% 1.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.6% 1.3% 1.2% Consensus: 2.6% 15.9% 8.7% 4.3% 2.6% 7.1% 7.5% 11.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.8% 8.9% 4.8% 2.6% 1.3% 4.0% 3.7% 5.9% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072024 SEVEN 09/12/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 37 39 44 49 54 57 61 67 71 77 79 81 86 89 18HR AGO 30 29 32 34 36 41 46 51 54 58 64 68 74 76 78 83 86 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 35 40 45 48 52 58 62 68 70 72 77 80 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 27 32 37 40 44 50 54 60 62 64 69 72 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT