* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVEN AL072024 09/12/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 35 38 41 44 45 47 51 53 56 56 57 59 63 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 35 38 41 44 45 47 51 53 56 56 57 59 63 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 33 35 36 38 39 40 43 48 54 60 66 73 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 11 12 13 17 7 8 8 10 2 3 6 6 7 5 10 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -1 0 -1 1 1 2 3 3 1 -1 0 -3 -1 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 295 310 309 306 310 310 273 271 265 264 53 103 104 134 200 225 256 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.5 27.6 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 128 128 127 127 127 130 130 133 133 134 134 137 135 135 134 137 138 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 71 69 70 71 70 66 60 55 55 52 54 53 58 60 65 69 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 18 18 18 18 18 17 15 14 13 12 11 10 10 9 12 850 MB ENV VOR 36 25 18 17 23 33 38 43 49 41 32 17 16 23 68 93 113 200 MB DIV 42 55 45 21 25 67 36 21 -24 -6 -11 2 20 36 55 72 56 700-850 TADV -4 -1 0 -2 -1 -5 -2 -2 -2 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 11 LAND (KM) 1598 1736 1874 1999 2109 2145 2074 1990 1876 1795 1745 1685 1613 1618 1680 1765 1843 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.5 17.9 18.4 18.9 19.5 19.8 20.1 20.4 20.7 21.0 21.4 21.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 32.3 33.5 34.8 35.9 37.1 39.3 40.7 42.2 43.5 44.5 45.2 46.1 47.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 12 12 9 7 7 6 4 4 5 3 3 5 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 13 15 16 9 9 15 20 27 37 45 38 27 22 21 23 28 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 26. 28. 29. 29. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -16. -17. -19. -19. -19. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 14. 15. 17. 21. 23. 26. 27. 27. 29. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.0 32.3 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072024 SEVEN 09/12/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.71 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 111.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.81 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.31 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.6 27.0 to 143.0 0.56 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 13.8% 9.0% 6.6% 4.2% 10.2% 11.2% 18.6% Logistic: 2.5% 9.9% 4.9% 1.6% 0.6% 2.8% 2.7% 3.8% Bayesian: 0.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 1.6% 8.3% 4.8% 2.8% 1.6% 4.4% 4.7% 7.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.3% 5.1% 2.9% 1.4% .8% 2.2% 2.3% 3.7% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072024 SEVEN 09/12/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 34 35 38 41 44 45 47 51 53 56 56 57 59 63 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 33 36 39 42 43 45 49 51 54 54 55 57 61 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 32 35 38 39 41 45 47 50 50 51 53 57 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 24 27 30 31 33 37 39 42 42 43 45 49 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT