* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* SEVEN AL072024 09/12/24 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 33 36 38 41 43 46 48 53 54 57 58 60 61
V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 32 33 36 38 41 43 46 48 53 54 57 58 60 61
V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 32 34 34 35 37 39 42 47 52 59 66 73 78
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 10 11 10 16 14 8 13 6 5 4 4 6 5 8 2 6 6
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 0 0 0 5 0 4 3 1 -3 0 -2 -4 -2 -6 -5
SHEAR DIR 316 313 307 304 295 289 282 280 282 257 343 94 114 125 189 226 293
SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1
POT. INT. (KT) 128 128 127 129 130 131 132 135 138 137 136 135 134 135 136 136 136
200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -53.2
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8
700-500 MB RH 69 69 68 68 65 64 57 57 55 53 52 52 53 56 58 66 67
MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 16 16 16 16 15 14 13 12 10 9 8 8 7 6 5
850 MB ENV VOR 24 22 28 21 30 41 35 38 34 30 13 -2 -15 -5 39 81 81
200 MB DIV 22 21 20 37 40 70 26 3 -6 -32 -11 0 22 24 29 46 67
700-850 TADV 0 1 -2 -2 -4 -5 -3 -3 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 1 0 2 3
LAND (KM) 1774 1927 2077 2179 2144 2056 1972 1874 1743 1663 1633 1588 1501 1501 1588 1672 1713
LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.0 18.4 18.8 19.1 19.5 19.7 19.9 20.0 20.3 20.8 21.1 21.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 33.9 35.3 36.7 37.7 38.8 40.6 42.1 43.3 44.7 45.7 46.3 47.0 47.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 12 11 10 8 6 6 6 4 3 4 3 4 5 5 5
HEAT CONTENT 15 12 7 10 13 21 30 37 47 41 31 27 22 21 21 27 31
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.2
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 27. 28. 29. 30. 30. 29.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -12. -16. -18. -20. -20. -22. -22. -23.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 16. 18. 23. 24. 27. 28. 30. 31.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.5 33.9
** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072024 SEVEN 09/12/24 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.70 1.9
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.07 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 1.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.37 0.4
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 120.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.80 1.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.26 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.1 27.0 to 143.0 0.56 0.4
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 12.8% 8.4% 6.3% 3.9% 9.7% 10.4% 18.6%
Logistic: 2.4% 10.6% 5.7% 2.4% 1.0% 4.0% 4.0% 7.6%
Bayesian: 0.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3%
Consensus: 1.4% 8.0% 4.8% 2.9% 1.6% 4.6% 4.8% 8.8%
DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SDCON: .7% 4.5% 2.9% 1.4% .8% 2.3% 2.4% 4.4%
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072024 SEVEN 09/12/2024 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 31 32 33 36 38 41 43 46 48 53 54 57 58 60 61
18HR AGO 30 29 29 30 31 34 36 39 41 44 46 51 52 55 56 58 59
12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 31 33 36 38 41 43 48 49 52 53 55 56
6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 24 26 29 31 34 36 41 42 45 46 48 49
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT