* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* NINE EP092024 09/12/24 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 29 29 33 34 35 32 31 30 34 39 43 42 37 31
V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 29 29 29 33 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 28 29
V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 31 31 30 29 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 28 29
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP
SHEAR (KT) 13 9 14 11 11 14 18 21 26 23 29 38 51 59 61 64 45
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 1 0 -1 3 4 2 1 3 -2 -6 -10 -13 -16 -1
SHEAR DIR 69 83 96 98 119 180 238 239 261 267 259 260 269 277 285 290 305
SST (C) 30.8 30.6 30.7 30.7 30.4 30.6 31.6 31.6 30.4 28.0 27.8 27.9 28.3 29.6 29.5 29.8 28.5
POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 170 171 169 171 170 169 166 141 140 142 149 164 162 165 151
200 MB T (C) -49.8 -49.5 -49.3 -49.5 -49.7 -49.5 -49.7 -49.5 -49.9 -50.1 -50.3 -50.4 -51.0 -51.4 -52.4 -52.5 -53.4
200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 10 7 6 8 5 7 5 9 6 10 8 7 3 5 0
700-500 MB RH 64 62 63 63 62 58 56 51 48 49 44 40 36 39 39 43 41
MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 14 13 12 10 9 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 38 22 14 24 16 11 18 20 15 2 23 10 14 -4 -36 -64 -73
200 MB DIV 18 11 3 8 5 36 9 -3 12 -10 6 -8 12 16 5 -7 -3
700-850 TADV -3 -1 -3 -4 -2 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 2 20 37 22 74 7
LAND (KM) 247 246 254 292 204 -3 75 3 -6 -108 -197 -338 -561 -874 -934 -999 -999
LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.4 20.0 20.7 21.4 23.2 24.7 25.9 26.5 27.2 27.8 28.9 30.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 107.4 107.8 108.1 108.5 108.9 109.5 109.6 109.4 109.2 108.5 107.9 107.1 105.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 9 9 7 4 4 4 5 8 14 18 17 15 14
HEAT CONTENT 26 23 24 24 22 21 29 33 24 7 5 5 10 5 4 5 3
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=586)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.1
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -4. -2. -1. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. 1. 6. 11. 21.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. 8. -4. -22.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -6. -12. -15. -17. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. -9.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -0. 3. 4. 5. 2. 1. 0. 4. 9. 13. 12. 7. 1.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.8 107.4
** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092024 NINE 09/12/24 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.92 7.5
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.9 34.9 to 8.5 0.49 3.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 126.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 -5.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.21 1.2
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 1.8
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.20 0.7
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.3
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.84 -0.3
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 17.9% 13.7% 11.3% 0.0% 20.4% 18.4% 15.8%
Logistic: 2.2% 9.9% 3.4% 1.1% 0.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 3.2% 9.5% 5.7% 4.1% 0.2% 7.1% 6.3% 5.5%
DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0%
SDCON: 1.6% 5.2% 3.3% 2.0% .1% 3.5% 3.1% 3.7%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092024 NINE 09/12/24 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##