* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVEN AL072024 09/12/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 33 35 36 39 42 45 48 51 52 54 55 57 59 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 32 33 35 36 39 42 45 48 51 52 54 55 57 59 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 32 32 33 34 35 37 41 45 50 54 59 65 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 16 13 9 10 9 9 5 0 6 7 5 4 9 11 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 0 -1 2 2 3 3 3 2 0 0 -1 0 -2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 319 310 307 310 304 284 279 290 308 98 138 159 161 214 287 281 260 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.5 27.7 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 128 127 128 130 130 132 135 136 137 136 136 135 134 136 136 135 136 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 9 9 8 8 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 68 68 68 65 63 61 56 55 52 53 52 56 54 57 56 61 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 17 17 16 14 14 13 12 10 10 8 7 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 25 23 28 30 31 34 37 28 18 0 -9 -16 4 20 26 25 200 MB DIV 17 20 28 28 54 35 27 2 -28 -14 13 28 30 36 15 44 29 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -3 -1 -4 -3 -2 -2 -1 0 -2 0 0 1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1940 2059 2171 2156 2112 2011 1890 1762 1672 1604 1547 1506 1473 1477 1519 1568 1626 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.5 18.9 19.2 19.5 19.7 19.8 20.0 20.3 20.6 20.7 20.9 21.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 35.4 36.5 37.7 38.7 39.8 41.5 43.1 44.5 45.6 46.5 47.2 47.8 48.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 3 3 3 2 3 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 12 7 10 14 16 26 36 46 42 32 29 23 21 21 22 23 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 702 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 26. 28. 29. 29. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -12. -16. -17. -20. -21. -21. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 12. 15. 18. 21. 22. 24. 25. 27. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.1 35.4 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072024 SEVEN 09/12/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.67 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.39 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 124.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.80 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.27 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.9 27.0 to 143.0 0.55 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 12.6% 8.3% 6.2% 3.8% 9.5% 10.1% 17.7% Logistic: 1.6% 5.5% 2.6% 0.8% 0.3% 1.7% 2.7% 5.9% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 1.2% 6.3% 3.7% 2.4% 1.4% 3.8% 4.3% 7.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.1% 3.6% 2.3% 1.2% .7% 1.9% 2.1% 3.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072024 SEVEN 09/12/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072024 SEVEN 09/12/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 31 32 33 35 36 39 42 45 48 51 52 54 55 57 59 18HR AGO 30 29 29 30 31 33 34 37 40 43 46 49 50 52 53 55 57 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 30 31 34 37 40 43 46 47 49 50 52 54 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 23 24 27 30 33 36 39 40 42 43 45 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT