* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* GORDON AL072024 09/13/24 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 38 38 37 39 44 47 52 54 57 60 63 67 72 76
V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 38 38 37 39 44 47 52 54 57 60 63 67 72 76
V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 38 38 37 37 39 43 48 53 58 64 70 79 87 93
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 14 16 15 12 10 15 6 1 5 7 5 3 0 3 0 5 8
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 4 3 2 0 1 3 0 -1 0 -3 0 -6 -3 -2 0
SHEAR DIR 311 294 301 285 264 305 357 98 121 138 138 178 257 315 316 290 294
SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.0 28.9 29.0 28.5 28.1 28.8
POT. INT. (KT) 129 130 131 134 136 138 143 143 144 145 146 148 147 149 143 138 149
200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 9
700-500 MB RH 61 61 60 56 55 57 52 53 55 59 57 60 62 62 61 61 61
MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 16 15 14 13 12 10 10 9 8 7 6 7 7 9
850 MB ENV VOR 11 13 10 12 10 6 2 1 -14 -19 -11 17 31 53 65 63 59
200 MB DIV 33 28 20 26 31 -19 -6 6 1 1 0 0 11 21 21 18 34
700-850 TADV 1 -3 -4 -3 -2 -3 0 -1 -2 0 0 1 2 1 3 6 11
LAND (KM) 2156 2109 2058 1995 1919 1769 1601 1463 1396 1318 1245 1219 1223 1246 1312 1454 1684
LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.6 19.7 19.8 19.8 19.7 19.4 19.3 19.1 19.2 19.5 19.9 20.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 39.0 39.9 40.8 41.8 42.8 44.3 45.9 47.3 47.9 48.8 49.8 50.4 50.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 5 3 5 4 3 4 5 7 10 12
HEAT CONTENT 15 16 21 27 33 46 51 41 34 24 21 22 22 23 19 15 26
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.1
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 28. 29. 29. 28.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -17. -18. -20. -21. -20. -19. -16.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 4. 9. 13. 17. 19. 22. 25. 28. 32. 37. 41.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.4 39.0
** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072024 GORDON 09/13/24 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.2
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.55 1.4
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.14 0.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 0.8
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.4
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.10 0.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 184.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.74 0.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.26 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.4 27.0 to 143.0 0.51 0.3
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 11.2% 7.5% 6.0% 3.6% 9.0% 9.6% 17.7%
Logistic: 1.0% 2.7% 1.3% 0.8% 0.2% 2.8% 3.6% 13.1%
Bayesian: 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.0%
Consensus: 1.1% 4.7% 3.0% 2.3% 1.3% 4.0% 4.4% 10.6%
DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SDCON: 1.0% 2.8% 1.5% 1.1% .6% 2.0% 2.2% 5.3%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072024 GORDON 09/13/24 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072024 GORDON 09/13/2024 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 38 38 38 37 39 44 47 52 54 57 60 63 67 72 76
18HR AGO 35 34 36 36 36 35 37 42 45 50 52 55 58 61 65 70 74
12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 31 30 32 37 40 45 47 50 53 56 60 65 69
6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 24 26 31 34 39 41 44 47 50 54 59 63
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT