* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* ILEANA EP092024 09/13/24 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 40 39 38 31 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 40 41 40 39 37 31 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 40 40 40 39 39 37 35 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 10 14 15 16 18 24 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 0 2 3 6 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 147 178 212 238 245 257 264 251 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 30.4 30.7 30.8 31.2 31.6 32.2 32.7 32.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 168 170 170 169 169 169 169 169 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -49.4 -49.3 -49.6 -49.6 -49.5 -49.6 -50.1 -50.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 5 5 6 4 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 59 56 52 51 48 40 35 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 12 10 8 7 7 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 7 5 19 8 11 25 17 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 11 24 27 14 -6 1 -13 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -4 0 0 -1 -3 -1 0 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 100 16 17 48 82 78 64 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 22.3 23.1 23.8 24.4 24.9 25.8 26.7 27.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 109.2 109.4 109.6 109.7 109.7 110.2 110.7 111.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 6 5 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 20 22 23 26 30 34 40 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=586)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.7
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -6. -12. -20. -29. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -3. -6. -8. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
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TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -1. -2. -9. -14. -21. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 22.3 109.2
** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092024 ILEANA 09/13/24 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.83 7.4
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.2 34.9 to 8.5 0.44 3.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 242.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.63 -4.9
D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.23 1.5
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.6
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 3.7
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.20 0.7
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 38.1 58.2 to 0.0 0.34 0.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 -0.2
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
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SHIPS-RII: 12.3% 29.5% 17.4% 14.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.3% 3.2% 2.4% 0.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 4.9% 11.0% 6.6% 5.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SDCON: 2.4% 6.0% 3.8% 3.0% .1% 0% 0% 0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092024 ILEANA 09/13/24 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##