* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GORDON AL072024 09/14/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 40 40 40 41 44 48 50 54 56 58 61 62 63 66 V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 40 40 40 41 44 48 50 54 56 58 61 62 63 66 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 42 41 41 39 40 42 46 52 56 61 66 72 77 79 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 15 11 12 11 2 2 8 5 5 4 4 9 10 14 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 5 4 3 1 6 0 -1 0 -2 -5 -6 -4 -3 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 291 299 292 281 283 336 27 47 134 144 142 301 309 343 334 328 298 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.8 28.4 28.2 28.2 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 129 131 133 135 137 139 142 144 143 142 141 142 145 141 139 139 148 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.9 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 60 58 57 57 57 55 54 54 59 59 61 61 66 65 66 63 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 15 14 13 12 10 10 8 8 6 6 6 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 11 7 9 3 0 -4 -8 -20 -21 -16 13 17 36 35 30 0 -15 200 MB DIV 28 14 29 21 -10 -27 8 -4 12 11 23 1 25 16 43 16 15 700-850 TADV -3 -6 -5 -1 -3 -3 -2 -3 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 LAND (KM) 2137 2071 2008 1934 1847 1716 1615 1496 1371 1316 1330 1319 1303 1392 1557 1722 1846 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 19.8 19.9 19.8 19.7 19.6 19.5 19.4 19.5 19.8 20.3 20.7 21.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.8 40.8 41.8 42.6 43.5 44.8 45.8 47.0 48.4 49.2 49.4 49.6 49.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 8 7 6 5 6 5 3 2 3 4 7 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 16 21 26 32 40 50 50 43 26 21 20 20 22 20 23 25 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 21. 22. 23. 23. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -12. -15. -17. -20. -21. -21. -21. -21. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 1. 4. 8. 10. 14. 16. 18. 21. 22. 23. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 19.8 39.8 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072024 GORDON 09/14/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.47 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.17 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.30 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.08 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 221.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.70 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.21 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.47 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 9.8% 6.6% 5.5% 3.3% 8.7% 9.6% 17.4% Logistic: 0.7% 1.4% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 1.6% 2.6% 9.7% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% Consensus: 0.9% 3.8% 2.4% 2.0% 1.1% 3.4% 4.1% 9.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .9% 2.4% 1.2% 1.0% .5% 1.7% 2.0% 4.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072024 GORDON 09/14/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072024 GORDON 09/14/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 41 40 40 40 41 44 48 50 54 56 58 61 62 63 66 18HR AGO 40 39 39 38 38 38 39 42 46 48 52 54 56 59 60 61 64 12HR AGO 40 37 36 35 35 35 36 39 43 45 49 51 53 56 57 58 61 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 30 31 34 38 40 44 46 48 51 52 53 56 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT