* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GORDON AL072024 09/14/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 40 39 38 37 38 41 45 49 55 60 65 72 75 77 79 V (KT) LAND 40 41 40 39 38 37 38 41 45 49 55 60 65 72 75 77 79 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 41 40 39 37 37 39 44 49 56 65 75 84 88 86 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 20 17 17 18 4 3 7 8 4 4 5 8 8 13 18 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 9 7 3 0 6 6 -1 -2 -1 -3 -2 -4 -3 -3 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 292 288 286 293 312 5 311 82 138 82 354 6 342 348 321 320 336 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 131 133 135 137 138 140 142 144 145 144 144 146 147 140 139 136 138 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 58 56 57 57 58 54 57 57 61 59 60 62 66 68 64 61 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 16 16 15 13 13 11 11 10 11 11 13 16 19 20 22 850 MB ENV VOR 9 13 2 -2 0 -5 -10 -22 -8 11 29 44 59 28 9 -19 -20 200 MB DIV 31 24 5 -25 -28 12 -7 -3 25 25 17 34 49 53 1 3 15 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 -4 -4 -1 -2 -2 0 0 0 -2 1 4 6 8 7 LAND (KM) 2111 2029 1933 1851 1769 1639 1529 1393 1290 1254 1259 1264 1264 1450 1773 1975 2035 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.0 19.9 19.8 19.7 19.6 19.5 19.4 19.8 20.1 20.3 20.9 21.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 40.4 41.5 42.7 43.5 44.3 45.6 46.7 48.1 49.5 50.1 50.1 50.2 50.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 9 8 7 6 6 7 5 2 2 4 6 12 12 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 18 24 32 39 46 51 44 30 21 21 21 22 23 17 26 12 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 696 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 17. 19. 21. 23. 23. 23. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -11. -12. -15. -16. -16. -14. -10. -7. -6. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. 1. 5. 9. 15. 20. 25. 32. 35. 37. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 20.0 40.4 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072024 GORDON 09/14/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.38 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.21 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.08 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 221.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.70 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.14 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.9 27.0 to 143.0 0.49 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.8 109.2 to 0.0 0.97 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 9.1% 6.3% 5.4% 3.1% 8.4% 8.9% 16.4% Logistic: 0.7% 1.2% 0.6% 0.6% 0.2% 2.1% 3.8% 9.7% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.0% Consensus: 0.9% 3.5% 2.3% 2.0% 1.1% 3.5% 4.3% 9.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .4% 1.7% 1.1% 1.0% .5% 1.7% 2.1% 4.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072024 GORDON 09/14/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072024 GORDON 09/14/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 40 39 38 37 38 41 45 49 55 60 65 72 75 77 79 18HR AGO 40 39 38 37 36 35 36 39 43 47 53 58 63 70 73 75 77 12HR AGO 40 37 36 35 34 33 34 37 41 45 51 56 61 68 71 73 75 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 28 29 32 36 40 46 51 56 63 66 68 70 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT