* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GORDON AL072024 09/15/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 32 31 31 33 37 40 43 47 51 55 60 63 62 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 33 32 31 31 33 37 40 43 47 51 55 60 63 62 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 33 31 30 30 30 32 35 39 43 47 53 59 66 71 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 20 13 9 6 7 10 4 6 3 4 4 2 9 14 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 2 3 6 2 0 0 -1 -3 -3 -4 -1 -4 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 279 305 329 354 13 54 120 162 150 235 265 291 168 240 258 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.2 29.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 141 143 143 144 146 149 149 151 151 152 152 140 157 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 53 52 52 51 53 57 58 62 62 65 66 67 67 62 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 12 11 10 10 9 8 7 6 6 6 7 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -3 -8 -6 -2 -14 -17 -6 17 24 30 29 26 41 50 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -34 -50 -39 -4 15 -7 23 7 27 11 25 20 36 7 11 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -3 0 -1 -3 -2 -1 -1 1 0 0 1 3 4 8 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1841 1759 1677 1605 1534 1384 1275 1187 1166 1150 1139 1154 1198 1366 1636 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.8 19.7 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.6 20.0 20.4 20.9 21.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 43.6 44.4 45.2 45.9 46.7 48.2 49.4 50.4 50.8 51.1 51.3 51.3 51.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 7 7 5 3 2 2 3 3 7 13 15 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 40 47 52 48 42 29 22 22 23 24 25 25 26 17 27 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 740 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 29. 29. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 10. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. -20. -19. -19. -20. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. 2. 5. 8. 12. 16. 20. 25. 28. 27. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.8 43.6 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072024 GORDON 09/15/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.52 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.30 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.12 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 236.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.68 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -22.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.03 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.6 27.0 to 143.0 0.57 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.4 109.2 to 0.0 0.90 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.6% 7.3% 6.4% 4.4% 9.3% 8.8% 16.3% Logistic: 0.5% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 1.2% 1.6% 5.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.2% 3.8% 2.6% 2.2% 1.5% 3.5% 3.5% 7.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .1% 1.9% 1.3% 1.1% .7% 1.7% 1.7% 3.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072024 GORDON 09/15/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072024 GORDON 09/15/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 33 32 31 31 33 37 40 43 47 51 55 60 63 62 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 33 32 32 34 38 41 44 48 52 56 61 64 63 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 30 32 36 39 42 46 50 54 59 62 61 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 27 31 34 37 41 45 49 54 57 56 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT