* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GORDON AL072024 09/15/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 32 33 34 37 40 42 46 50 53 56 58 60 62 61 64 V (KT) LAND 35 33 32 33 34 37 40 42 46 50 53 56 58 60 62 61 64 V (KT) LGEM 35 33 32 31 31 33 35 39 43 47 52 57 63 68 72 74 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 14 9 7 8 11 7 8 5 0 2 2 5 9 10 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 5 1 -2 2 1 -1 1 -2 0 -1 0 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 302 323 344 1 31 82 146 128 155 333 280 252 254 268 262 276 275 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.4 28.1 28.5 28.9 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 143 144 144 145 147 148 149 152 152 150 141 137 143 149 145 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 51 50 50 49 51 53 58 59 62 63 66 66 68 65 64 61 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 12 12 11 10 10 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -11 -7 -4 -5 -17 -10 11 38 34 44 42 51 40 42 15 -7 200 MB DIV -60 -45 -17 15 12 17 -13 12 30 35 31 50 17 30 15 31 17 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 -2 -2 -1 -1 0 1 0 0 0 1 6 6 10 6 LAND (KM) 1755 1670 1586 1513 1440 1305 1210 1172 1136 1125 1152 1220 1330 1463 1610 1758 1912 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 19.6 19.5 19.5 19.4 19.3 19.2 19.3 19.4 19.8 20.5 21.4 22.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 44.4 45.3 46.1 46.9 47.6 49.0 50.0 50.5 51.0 51.3 51.2 50.8 50.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 6 4 2 2 3 4 6 7 8 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 47 52 48 42 36 23 21 22 22 24 24 25 18 15 21 28 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 23. 26. 27. 29. 28. 29. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -15. -17. -20. -20. -20. -19. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -2. -1. 2. 5. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 23. 25. 27. 26. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.6 44.4 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072024 GORDON 09/15/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.61 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.29 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.30 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 248.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.67 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.05 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.9 27.0 to 143.0 0.59 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.4 109.2 to 0.0 0.85 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.9% 9.4% 7.7% 5.7% 10.9% 10.3% 17.8% Logistic: 0.9% 1.8% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 1.9% 1.7% 5.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.3% 5.4% 3.6% 2.7% 2.0% 4.3% 4.0% 7.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .1% 2.7% 1.8% 1.3% 1.0% 2.1% 2.0% 3.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072024 GORDON 09/15/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072024 GORDON 09/15/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 33 32 33 34 37 40 42 46 50 53 56 58 60 62 61 64 18HR AGO 35 34 33 34 35 38 41 43 47 51 54 57 59 61 63 62 65 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 36 39 41 45 49 52 55 57 59 61 60 63 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 29 32 34 38 42 45 48 50 52 54 53 56 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT