* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GORDON AL072024 09/15/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 37 38 42 43 47 52 57 62 68 72 73 75 76 79 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 37 38 42 43 47 52 57 62 68 72 73 75 76 79 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 36 36 38 41 46 51 58 66 76 83 86 88 90 92 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 9 7 8 11 10 4 7 1 5 0 2 7 4 8 6 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 6 3 -2 0 1 -1 -1 -4 -1 0 -2 0 -1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 314 337 354 13 45 112 128 131 177 120 226 357 288 317 311 338 340 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 28.9 28.5 28.1 28.3 28.6 28.9 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 144 146 145 145 145 146 148 151 148 143 137 140 144 149 143 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 48 49 50 53 54 58 59 64 64 65 66 68 68 66 66 68 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 12 11 11 9 9 8 8 8 10 11 11 13 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -9 0 0 -3 -8 -12 7 24 36 37 43 50 26 19 -3 -13 200 MB DIV -38 -13 10 16 18 13 5 21 28 50 23 34 16 21 11 16 8 700-850 TADV 0 1 -2 -3 -1 -1 -2 0 0 0 0 2 7 4 10 6 19 LAND (KM) 1674 1589 1506 1432 1358 1241 1163 1141 1140 1189 1254 1353 1463 1584 1727 1886 2055 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.3 19.2 19.1 18.9 18.8 18.7 18.8 19.2 19.9 20.9 22.1 23.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.1 45.9 46.8 47.5 48.2 49.4 50.2 50.5 50.8 50.7 50.3 49.7 49.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 6 5 2 2 3 4 6 7 7 7 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 53 51 47 40 30 21 21 21 22 23 22 20 16 19 26 21 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 23. 26. 27. 28. 28. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -12. -10. -11. -9. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. -7. -5. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 2. 3. 7. 8. 12. 17. 22. 27. 33. 37. 38. 40. 41. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.3 45.1 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072024 GORDON 09/15/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.66 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.28 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.30 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 247.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.67 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.13 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.6 27.0 to 143.0 0.61 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.6 109.2 to 0.0 0.92 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 15.7% 10.6% 8.5% 6.2% 11.7% 11.8% 20.4% Logistic: 1.3% 3.4% 1.8% 0.8% 0.3% 3.0% 2.6% 8.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 2.1% 7.1% 4.3% 3.1% 2.2% 4.9% 4.8% 9.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.0% 4.0% 2.6% 1.5% 1.1% 2.4% 2.4% 4.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072024 GORDON 09/15/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072024 GORDON 09/15/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 35 37 38 42 43 47 52 57 62 68 72 73 75 76 79 18HR AGO 35 34 34 36 37 41 42 46 51 56 61 67 71 72 74 75 78 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 34 38 39 43 48 53 58 64 68 69 71 72 75 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 30 31 35 40 45 50 56 60 61 63 64 67 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT