* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GORDON AL072024 09/15/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 31 32 36 40 45 49 55 58 64 66 68 69 70 74 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 31 32 36 40 45 49 55 58 64 66 68 69 70 74 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 28 29 30 33 37 41 47 55 64 72 78 83 88 92 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 7 12 11 7 8 6 2 5 5 2 3 4 6 7 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 3 -1 -3 0 -1 -3 -2 -8 -3 -2 -3 -3 -3 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 321 331 8 44 78 135 123 165 78 98 73 56 172 254 274 313 217 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.2 28.2 28.4 29.0 29.1 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 142 144 144 145 145 146 146 148 149 146 145 139 138 141 150 152 143 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 9 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 48 49 54 54 56 62 62 65 64 66 67 68 64 58 51 51 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 12 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 0 1 -3 -11 -8 -5 26 37 47 51 58 58 60 50 7 -42 200 MB DIV -4 16 9 8 12 -4 16 20 23 36 45 -4 14 15 14 -2 23 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -3 -3 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 7 6 2 8 3 10 LAND (KM) 1602 1532 1463 1399 1335 1247 1198 1174 1213 1256 1345 1457 1606 1711 1783 1901 2075 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.2 19.1 19.1 19.0 18.9 19.0 19.2 19.8 20.6 21.6 22.8 24.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.8 46.5 47.2 47.8 48.5 49.4 50.0 50.4 50.4 50.2 49.6 48.9 48.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 5 4 2 2 4 5 6 8 7 6 5 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 52 49 44 35 26 21 21 22 22 21 22 19 22 24 29 23 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 28. 30. 31. 31. 31. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 13. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -15. -15. -15. -16. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 19. 25. 28. 34. 36. 38. 39. 41. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.2 45.8 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072024 GORDON 09/15/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.70 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.27 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.37 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 200.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.72 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.17 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.2 27.0 to 143.0 0.64 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.3 109.2 to 0.0 0.92 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 14.1% 9.3% 7.2% 5.1% 10.7% 11.0% 20.6% Logistic: 1.8% 5.6% 3.0% 1.3% 0.7% 2.6% 3.4% 12.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 1.6% 6.9% 4.2% 2.9% 1.9% 4.5% 4.8% 11.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .8% 3.9% 2.1% 1.4% .9% 2.2% 2.4% 5.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072024 GORDON 09/15/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072024 GORDON 09/15/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 29 31 32 36 40 45 49 55 58 64 66 68 69 70 74 18HR AGO 30 29 29 31 32 36 40 45 49 55 58 64 66 68 69 70 74 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 33 37 42 46 52 55 61 63 65 66 67 71 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 25 29 34 38 44 47 53 55 57 58 59 63 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT