* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* EIGHT AL082024 09/15/24 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 47 48 47 43 42 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 47 48 37 30 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 40 42 42 43 42 33 29 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 34 36 33 27 22 14 9 7 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 0 -3 0 -4 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 242 244 253 253 241 242 203 302 274 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 29.4 28.9 28.2 27.3 26.4 26.4 26.6 26.3 25.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 156 147 137 125 115 117 119 116 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.8 0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 3 4 2 3 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 49 49 49 55 59 64 64 64 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 17 17 14 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 49 54 42 55 59 37 37 7 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 25 27 40 23 42 0 52 24 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 17 19 26 24 30 23 13 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 203 159 116 77 40 -53 -254 -390 -473 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 31.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 77.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 5 8 9 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 55 35 21 9 1 2 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 710 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. -0. -6. -9. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 8. 7. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 31.8 77.8
** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082024 EIGHT 09/15/24 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.0
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 39.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.19 0.5
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.16 0.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 0.8
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.48 0.5
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 200.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.72 0.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.28 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.38 0.2
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 35.2 109.2 to 0.0 0.68 -0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 10.0% 6.8% 5.1% 0.0% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.6% 3.0% 1.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 1.4% 4.3% 2.8% 1.9% 0.1% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS: 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SDCON: 1.7% 3.1% 2.4% 1.4% .5% 1.4% 0% 0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082024 EIGHT 09/15/24 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082024 EIGHT 09/15/2024 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 44 47 48 37 30 28 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
18HR AGO 40 39 41 44 45 34 27 25 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
12HR AGO 40 37 36 39 40 29 22 20 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT