* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GORDON AL072024 09/16/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 30 31 33 37 42 48 53 59 64 69 69 71 69 68 69 V (KT) LAND 30 29 30 31 33 37 42 48 53 59 64 69 69 71 69 68 69 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 29 29 32 35 40 46 54 64 71 76 78 79 78 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 12 10 9 7 8 4 6 4 1 6 6 15 14 19 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -2 -2 -3 -2 -2 -1 -3 -4 -1 -3 0 -3 0 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 323 9 44 74 112 104 130 318 54 16 265 288 260 286 298 314 315 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 145 145 144 144 144 146 144 144 139 138 139 143 145 147 141 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 47 52 53 55 58 62 65 64 68 68 72 70 64 57 56 58 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 11 11 9 9 8 9 9 10 11 11 13 13 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -3 -3 -12 -3 3 28 40 52 70 62 55 33 17 12 0 5 200 MB DIV 6 0 4 1 -3 -1 29 14 48 50 46 17 29 23 23 35 69 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -3 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 2 5 3 0 -2 0 -13 LAND (KM) 1530 1465 1401 1351 1302 1252 1242 1240 1279 1359 1480 1616 1733 1844 1960 2073 1901 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.1 19.0 19.0 18.9 19.0 19.3 19.7 20.3 21.4 22.9 24.3 25.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.5 47.1 47.8 48.3 48.8 49.4 49.7 50.0 49.9 49.4 48.7 47.9 47.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 5 4 2 2 3 5 7 8 7 6 6 8 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 50 45 36 28 24 22 21 22 21 22 20 23 23 21 16 17 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 27. 28. 29. 29. 29. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -9. -7. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -7. -5. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 18. 23. 29. 34. 39. 39. 41. 39. 38. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.1 46.5 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072024 GORDON 09/16/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.78 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.24 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.35 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 192.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.73 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.14 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.6 27.0 to 143.0 0.63 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.2 109.2 to 0.0 0.93 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 14.8% 9.9% 7.7% 5.6% 11.3% 11.7% 21.5% Logistic: 2.0% 7.1% 4.2% 1.7% 0.8% 2.5% 2.7% 12.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 1.8% 7.6% 4.8% 3.1% 2.1% 4.6% 4.8% 11.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .9% 4.3% 2.9% 1.5% 1.0% 2.3% 2.4% 5.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072024 GORDON 09/16/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072024 GORDON 09/16/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 30 31 33 37 42 48 53 59 64 69 69 71 69 68 69 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 33 37 42 48 53 59 64 69 69 71 69 68 69 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 29 33 38 44 49 55 60 65 65 67 65 64 65 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 26 31 37 42 48 53 58 58 60 58 57 58 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT