* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GORDON AL072024 09/16/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 25 26 30 36 42 48 53 59 63 66 66 65 64 66 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 25 26 30 36 42 48 53 59 63 66 66 65 64 66 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 23 24 25 28 31 35 41 49 56 60 62 63 65 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 14 12 11 9 11 5 1 4 3 12 13 14 12 15 20 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 -2 -1 0 -2 0 -5 -2 -1 -1 -4 -4 -2 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 18 49 76 110 116 113 143 27 345 311 281 292 291 301 280 290 306 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.2 28.3 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.9 28.4 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 144 145 144 143 143 143 142 139 140 144 142 145 150 143 133 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -53.3 -53.3 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.6 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 50 51 53 57 60 62 65 65 69 70 68 61 57 51 48 48 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 11 10 8 8 7 6 6 8 10 11 11 11 11 13 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -11 -18 -8 0 16 45 55 72 68 70 56 35 1 -30 -68 -6 200 MB DIV -13 -11 -5 0 3 13 10 28 49 62 20 4 9 3 20 25 65 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -1 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 8 5 0 -1 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1467 1420 1373 1337 1302 1287 1288 1307 1401 1499 1607 1736 1867 2000 2022 1892 1824 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.1 19.0 19.2 19.4 19.6 19.9 20.6 21.5 22.9 24.5 25.8 26.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 47.2 47.7 48.1 48.6 49.1 49.4 49.6 49.7 49.0 48.5 48.1 47.4 46.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 5 4 2 3 4 6 8 8 6 7 8 10 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 43 37 31 25 22 21 21 20 22 22 21 25 19 15 19 13 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 28. 30. 31. 31. 30. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -12. -11. -10. -11. -11. -11. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 23. 28. 34. 38. 41. 41. 40. 39. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 19.2 47.2 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072024 GORDON 09/16/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.74 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.20 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.14 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.31 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 159.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.76 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.11 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.7 27.0 to 143.0 0.67 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.2 109.2 to 0.0 0.99 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.2% 8.9% 5.8% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 9.5% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 5.9% 3.2% 1.4% 0.7% 1.9% 5.1% 24.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% Consensus: 1.0% 5.2% 3.0% 1.9% 0.2% 0.7% 4.9% 8.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .5% 2.6% 1.5% .9% .1% .3% 2.4% 4.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072024 GORDON 09/16/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072024 GORDON 09/16/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 24 24 25 26 30 36 42 48 53 59 63 66 66 65 64 66 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 26 30 36 42 48 53 59 63 66 66 65 64 66 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 27 33 39 45 50 56 60 63 63 62 61 63 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 20 26 32 38 43 49 53 56 56 55 54 56 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT