* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GORDON AL072024 09/17/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 33 37 44 55 64 75 78 78 82 77 71 67 65 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 32 33 37 44 55 64 75 78 78 82 77 71 67 65 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 34 36 41 50 61 71 74 74 73 70 66 63 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 6 12 13 3 2 4 12 23 21 21 14 15 13 12 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -2 -4 -6 -4 -1 2 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 118 113 100 109 114 87 352 283 241 260 243 228 236 257 249 243 255 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.3 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.2 27.6 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 143 144 142 139 137 138 137 135 134 135 138 141 138 130 130 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 -53.1 -53.6 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.4 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 8 7 7 7 7 6 7 700-500 MB RH 54 58 59 64 66 64 69 71 64 58 54 56 56 50 46 46 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 9 9 9 7 7 11 13 20 20 20 23 21 18 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 3 0 9 23 48 56 75 95 77 82 65 59 38 1 -37 -53 -74 200 MB DIV 10 7 20 15 17 19 76 72 52 7 26 17 36 2 5 3 6 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 1 1 3 9 8 14 7 11 6 15 12 9 1 LAND (KM) 1302 1294 1287 1313 1340 1418 1503 1651 1846 1985 2092 2188 2075 1947 1820 1719 1633 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.1 19.3 19.6 19.9 20.6 21.9 23.6 25.3 26.5 27.2 28.2 29.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.8 49.0 49.2 49.1 49.0 48.6 48.1 47.2 45.9 45.0 44.2 43.7 43.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 3 4 5 8 10 9 6 5 6 7 6 6 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 24 23 22 22 22 21 21 28 18 12 12 14 21 15 11 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 23. 23. 22. 20. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 9. 8. 6. 5. 3. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -4. -1. 6. 7. 6. 9. 4. 0. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 14. 25. 34. 45. 48. 48. 52. 47. 41. 37. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.9 48.8 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072024 GORDON 09/17/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.78 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.15 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.27 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.37 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 157.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.77 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.20 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.61 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 12.2% 8.0% 6.0% 3.9% 10.2% 12.5% 25.0% Logistic: 3.1% 13.7% 7.7% 3.2% 1.8% 11.3% 19.3% 38.5% Bayesian: 0.9% 2.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.4% 2.4% Consensus: 1.8% 9.4% 5.5% 3.1% 1.9% 7.3% 10.7% 22.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .9% 4.7% 2.7% 1.5% .9% 3.6% 5.3% 11.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072024 GORDON 09/17/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072024 GORDON 09/17/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 31 32 33 37 44 55 64 75 78 78 82 77 71 67 65 18HR AGO 30 29 29 30 31 35 42 53 62 73 76 76 80 75 69 65 63 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 32 39 50 59 70 73 73 77 72 66 62 60 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 25 32 43 52 63 66 66 70 65 59 55 53 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT