* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GORDON AL072024 09/17/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 38 44 51 62 72 77 81 81 83 83 79 78 75 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 38 44 51 62 72 77 81 81 83 83 79 78 75 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 40 47 57 68 74 76 77 78 78 76 73 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 11 11 7 4 5 8 15 12 11 10 10 12 16 23 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -4 -4 -1 -3 -1 -5 -4 -3 0 -1 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 111 78 83 99 104 39 303 268 253 244 242 244 246 230 238 254 279 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.2 27.7 27.4 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 144 142 142 137 138 138 135 135 134 137 140 139 132 131 119 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -53.1 -53.5 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 4 2 700-500 MB RH 57 58 63 66 65 67 73 65 59 53 57 61 64 54 51 50 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 10 9 8 9 9 13 17 19 21 21 22 22 21 23 21 850 MB ENV VOR 1 2 18 49 57 63 77 66 75 65 53 31 13 -20 -5 -2 -87 200 MB DIV 5 15 19 27 18 40 48 67 16 4 13 28 24 33 24 16 13 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 1 1 1 5 11 5 6 6 10 8 13 12 7 0 LAND (KM) 1283 1297 1311 1340 1370 1476 1613 1791 1953 2060 2130 2169 2027 1830 1632 1571 1707 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.2 19.4 19.8 20.1 21.3 23.1 24.9 26.2 27.1 27.6 28.6 30.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 49.0 49.0 49.0 48.9 48.8 48.2 47.4 46.3 45.2 44.5 44.0 43.7 43.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 4 5 8 10 9 7 4 4 7 8 9 9 15 18 HEAT CONTENT 23 23 23 22 21 21 23 23 13 12 13 15 21 11 7 5 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 8. 12. 16. 18. 20. 21. 22. 22. 21. 19. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -0. 5. 7. 9. 8. 8. 8. 6. 6. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 15. 21. 32. 42. 47. 51. 51. 53. 53. 49. 48. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.9 49.0 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072024 GORDON 09/17/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.79 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.14 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.58 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 144.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.78 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.21 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.8 27.0 to 143.0 0.60 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 16.4% 10.9% 8.1% 5.7% 12.2% 14.2% 25.9% Logistic: 9.6% 28.6% 21.0% 8.7% 4.2% 19.1% 30.4% 35.4% Bayesian: 1.5% 7.1% 3.3% 0.7% 0.2% 1.8% 2.5% 2.1% Consensus: 4.8% 17.4% 11.7% 5.8% 3.4% 11.0% 15.7% 21.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 2.4% 9.2% 5.8% 2.9% 1.7% 5.5% 7.8% 11.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072024 GORDON 09/17/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072024 GORDON 09/17/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 36 38 44 51 62 72 77 81 81 83 83 79 78 75 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 35 41 48 59 69 74 78 78 80 80 76 75 72 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 36 43 54 64 69 73 73 75 75 71 70 67 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 28 35 46 56 61 65 65 67 67 63 62 59 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT