* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GORDON AL072024 09/17/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 39 46 55 65 75 77 76 76 77 77 73 71 68 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 39 46 55 65 75 77 76 76 77 77 73 71 68 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 42 50 61 68 71 72 72 74 75 72 67 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 10 8 2 4 2 8 12 15 14 12 13 12 10 10 14 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 0 -3 -5 -4 0 -4 -5 -4 -2 -1 4 2 -1 3 SHEAR DIR 90 90 88 78 355 347 282 264 273 248 249 244 256 238 251 250 262 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.5 28.8 27.8 27.4 25.9 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 141 139 138 138 138 138 136 137 137 143 148 135 131 115 111 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.0 1.0 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 8 6 7 6 7 7 8 7 7 5 4 2 700-500 MB RH 57 62 66 65 65 71 70 63 57 55 57 61 62 58 57 56 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 10 12 16 20 20 18 19 19 20 20 19 17 850 MB ENV VOR 5 24 47 60 64 78 85 75 83 67 50 25 2 -37 -13 12 13 200 MB DIV 29 25 41 33 34 58 60 36 12 24 5 59 15 13 16 1 0 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 1 1 3 9 9 10 2 5 3 13 16 31 10 -10 LAND (KM) 1296 1330 1364 1415 1451 1552 1699 1848 1969 2058 2122 2075 1905 1715 1533 1478 1590 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.7 20.0 20.6 21.1 22.5 24.3 25.9 26.7 27.4 28.1 29.3 31.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 49.1 48.9 48.8 48.6 48.4 47.8 47.0 46.2 45.3 44.7 44.4 44.3 44.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 6 6 9 9 7 5 4 5 8 9 11 14 17 19 HEAT CONTENT 23 22 22 21 21 22 31 17 12 12 13 17 18 7 4 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 15. 17. 19. 20. 21. 21. 19. 17. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 9. 9. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 16. 25. 35. 45. 47. 46. 46. 47. 47. 43. 41. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.3 49.1 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072024 GORDON 09/17/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.84 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.14 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.32 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 134.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.79 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.28 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.1 27.0 to 143.0 0.60 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 15.5% 10.3% 7.7% 5.2% 12.1% 13.9% 23.8% Logistic: 2.4% 14.4% 8.1% 3.9% 1.4% 10.4% 19.7% 25.8% Bayesian: 0.6% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.8% 0.4% Consensus: 1.8% 10.6% 6.3% 3.9% 2.2% 7.6% 11.4% 16.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.4% 5.8% 3.6% 1.9% 1.1% 3.8% 5.7% 8.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072024 GORDON 09/17/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072024 GORDON 09/17/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 36 39 46 55 65 75 77 76 76 77 77 73 71 68 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 36 43 52 62 72 74 73 73 74 74 70 68 65 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 38 47 57 67 69 68 68 69 69 65 63 60 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 30 39 49 59 61 60 60 61 61 57 55 52 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT