* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GORDON AL072024 09/18/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 26 31 36 41 44 46 47 47 47 46 45 46 51 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 26 31 36 41 44 46 47 47 47 46 45 46 39 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 25 27 28 30 31 32 34 34 35 34 34 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 3 5 10 14 16 14 13 12 13 13 14 15 18 25 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -2 -2 0 -3 -1 0 -1 0 1 0 4 4 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 346 9 356 308 273 261 278 280 295 268 282 263 281 295 316 312 333 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.1 27.3 25.9 23.9 22.1 20.5 17.8 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 138 138 137 135 136 132 133 134 139 130 117 103 94 88 79 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.7 -53.9 -54.5 -54.8 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 3 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 64 66 69 71 69 59 56 50 54 55 55 53 52 56 61 57 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 88 83 75 72 68 62 54 42 30 11 -21 -70 -68 -69 -46 -49 -65 200 MB DIV 46 69 71 57 62 40 -5 -9 -3 19 13 25 2 -1 29 2 -2 700-850 TADV 2 2 3 9 15 13 13 8 7 3 8 1 17 5 22 37 63 LAND (KM) 1511 1565 1638 1716 1810 2011 2176 2303 2301 2187 1995 1795 1687 1835 1229 475 -74 LAT (DEG N) 21.5 22.3 23.0 23.8 24.7 26.1 26.9 27.5 28.1 29.3 31.3 34.0 37.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 47.9 47.6 47.1 46.6 46.0 44.5 43.1 42.0 41.5 41.3 41.1 39.9 37.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 9 7 4 5 8 12 17 23 28 33 33 29 HEAT CONTENT 21 21 23 30 23 12 16 20 18 21 14 5 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 7 CX,CY: 3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 7. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 22. 22. 22. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 26. 27. 27. 27. 26. 25. 26. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 21.5 47.9 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072024 GORDON 09/18/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.85 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 69.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.86 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.5 27.0 to 143.0 0.66 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.0% 30.4% 14.7% 6.7% 2.7% 10.0% 8.4% 18.7% Bayesian: 0.7% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 10.6% 5.0% 2.3% 0.9% 3.4% 2.8% 6.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .8% 5.8% 3.0% 1.1% .4% 1.7% 1.4% 3.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072024 GORDON 09/18/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072024 GORDON 09/18/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 24 26 31 36 41 44 46 47 47 47 46 45 46 39 18HR AGO 20 19 20 22 24 29 34 39 42 44 45 45 45 44 43 44 37 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 25 30 35 38 40 41 41 41 40 39 40 33 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT