* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GORDON AL072024 09/18/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 26 30 35 40 43 45 46 47 46 44 43 43 51 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 26 30 35 40 43 45 46 47 46 44 43 43 37 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 24 26 27 29 30 32 33 34 34 32 31 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 5 9 7 15 12 17 10 14 11 10 9 13 22 28 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -3 -1 0 -2 -1 0 -3 -1 -1 3 5 5 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 32 7 288 275 264 277 285 289 285 289 286 312 296 314 321 351 356 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.2 27.5 25.7 23.8 20.8 20.4 16.8 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 138 136 136 134 133 131 133 137 141 134 117 104 89 87 76 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.9 -53.0 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -54.4 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 4 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 63 67 69 67 62 58 52 51 52 52 53 53 61 69 69 69 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 82 78 69 63 51 51 39 33 16 -11 -45 -89 -90 -119 -100 -90 -77 200 MB DIV 74 77 54 45 58 -8 7 1 -1 13 12 1 5 14 5 -38 -40 700-850 TADV 2 4 9 12 12 11 10 5 4 4 3 0 6 8 33 85 87 LAND (KM) 1572 1638 1712 1792 1883 2052 2181 2250 2262 2228 1974 1666 1509 1766 1090 369 -159 LAT (DEG N) 22.2 23.0 23.7 24.5 25.1 26.0 26.4 26.5 27.0 28.4 30.8 34.4 38.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 47.5 47.1 46.6 46.1 45.4 44.0 42.8 42.1 42.2 42.6 42.8 41.7 38.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 7 5 1 5 10 15 22 29 33 33 30 24 HEAT CONTENT 21 23 29 26 18 12 16 17 18 20 15 6 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 9 CX,CY: 4/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. 2. 7. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 23. 22. 22. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -5. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 15. 20. 23. 25. 26. 27. 26. 24. 23. 23. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 22.2 47.5 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072024 GORDON 09/18/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.84 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.48 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 79.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.85 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.42 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.8 27.0 to 143.0 0.65 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 22.8% 10.2% 2.6% 0.8% 4.3% 5.0% 11.2% Bayesian: 0.5% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 8.0% 3.5% 0.9% 0.3% 1.4% 1.7% 3.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072024 GORDON 09/18/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072024 GORDON 09/18/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 24 26 30 35 40 43 45 46 47 46 44 43 43 37 18HR AGO 20 19 20 22 24 28 33 38 41 43 44 45 44 42 41 41 35 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 24 29 34 37 39 40 41 40 38 37 37 31 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT