* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GORDON AL072024 09/19/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 28 34 38 41 43 43 43 42 40 39 33 55 58 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 28 34 38 41 43 43 43 42 40 39 33 55 33 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 25 27 27 28 30 31 32 33 31 33 37 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 4 9 13 14 18 20 16 14 8 11 11 13 22 26 35 44 59 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 0 -1 -3 -1 0 -2 -2 -2 1 3 5 8 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 294 275 258 251 252 277 273 312 291 319 307 301 271 291 276 302 303 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.0 26.8 25.2 22.2 20.0 20.5 15.7 POT. INT. (KT) 136 138 136 136 134 133 131 132 135 139 140 127 114 97 88 90 77 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -54.2 -54.5 -55.0 -55.2 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 4 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 67 69 65 60 58 54 49 50 50 52 55 63 64 63 67 70 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 9 9 11 10 10 9 7 6 6 6 7 4 21 19 850 MB ENV VOR 71 65 61 55 54 47 34 20 -9 -42 -79 -74 -94 -75 -32 -6 -65 200 MB DIV 74 57 54 60 17 1 -18 9 -2 -6 17 22 28 15 47 61 -42 700-850 TADV 4 10 8 7 4 5 0 1 -1 3 -8 2 -27 -2 -8 189 101 LAND (KM) 1661 1739 1815 1897 1984 2130 2218 2222 2222 2116 1824 1566 1645 1343 430 119 -208 LAT (DEG N) 23.1 23.9 24.6 25.2 25.7 26.3 26.4 26.5 27.3 29.2 32.2 36.0 39.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.9 46.4 45.9 45.3 44.6 43.3 42.4 42.4 42.8 43.4 43.0 40.8 35.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 7 6 2 2 7 13 18 24 34 41 42 40 36 HEAT CONTENT 23 29 23 17 13 14 17 17 19 18 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 9 CX,CY: 4/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -0. 2. 6. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 22. 22. 23. 22. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 0. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -5. -7. -9. -9. -8. -13. 9. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 14. 18. 21. 23. 23. 23. 22. 20. 19. 13. 35. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 23.1 46.9 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072024 GORDON 09/19/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.58 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 79.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.85 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.38 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.7 27.0 to 143.0 0.64 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 11.9% 5.0% 0.9% 0.2% 2.2% 2.0% 8.8% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 4.2% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.8% 0.7% 2.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072024 GORDON 09/19/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072024 GORDON 09/19/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 23 26 28 34 38 41 43 43 43 42 40 39 33 55 33 18HR AGO 20 19 21 24 26 32 36 39 41 41 41 40 38 37 31 53 31 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 21 27 31 34 36 36 36 35 33 32 26 48 26 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT