* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GORDON AL072024 09/19/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 29 33 37 40 42 42 42 41 56 52 44 40 43 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 29 33 37 40 42 42 42 41 56 52 44 40 32 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 22 24 24 24 25 26 27 29 34 36 33 30 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 15 18 21 25 17 17 5 9 5 11 12 23 34 51 65 76 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -2 0 -2 2 -1 -1 -5 1 4 11 12 4 -6 SHEAR DIR 261 252 258 255 268 273 286 311 301 322 303 282 282 268 263 275 293 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.7 27.6 25.7 24.1 20.9 19.7 16.7 POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 136 134 134 133 130 131 136 139 149 135 116 107 91 87 79 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -53.0 -53.1 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -54.0 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.3 1.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 6 2 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 65 62 58 56 54 48 47 45 49 49 51 56 58 52 58 62 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 9 10 11 12 12 10 9 7 6 4 16 16 14 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 58 51 50 50 50 39 46 27 7 -27 -57 -64 -75 -61 -36 31 4 200 MB DIV 42 41 39 21 -5 15 -15 2 -4 -5 15 33 42 21 50 72 28 700-850 TADV 8 7 9 7 8 4 0 1 0 1 3 5 -7 -9 -17 91 96 LAND (KM) 1776 1865 1952 2025 2094 2213 2252 2224 2180 2162 1887 1586 1451 1778 873 142 -271 LAT (DEG N) 24.1 24.9 25.6 26.0 26.3 26.5 26.1 26.1 26.8 28.6 31.2 34.6 38.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.1 45.5 44.9 44.3 43.7 42.5 41.9 42.2 43.0 43.9 44.0 43.0 39.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 6 6 5 2 3 8 11 15 20 27 40 46 43 38 HEAT CONTENT 27 19 13 12 13 17 18 18 16 14 16 6 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 10 CX,CY: 5/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -0. 2. 6. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 22. 22. 22. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 1. -2. -6. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -6. -9. -12. 4. 3. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 17. 20. 22. 22. 22. 21. 36. 32. 24. 20. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 24.1 46.1 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072024 GORDON 09/19/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.54 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.11 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.60 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 88.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.84 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.26 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.62 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.3 109.2 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 7.3% 4.0% 0.8% 0.2% 1.0% 1.0% 2.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 2.5% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072024 GORDON 09/19/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072024 GORDON 09/19/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 23 26 29 33 37 40 42 42 42 41 56 52 44 40 32 18HR AGO 20 19 21 24 27 31 35 38 40 40 40 39 54 50 42 38 30 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 22 26 30 33 35 35 35 34 49 45 37 33 25 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT