* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GORDON AL072024 09/20/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 31 32 33 34 36 38 40 40 41 40 40 40 43 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 31 32 33 34 36 38 40 40 41 40 40 40 43 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 28 29 29 29 30 32 34 38 41 43 43 41 40 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 23 19 16 13 13 7 6 2 4 1 4 9 12 24 27 29 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 0 0 2 1 0 -2 -3 -4 -1 4 3 8 7 6 3 SHEAR DIR 274 271 283 295 299 342 339 32 24 232 237 247 248 269 267 269 261 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.3 27.7 27.1 25.9 25.5 24.8 23.9 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 132 131 131 132 134 136 139 141 134 128 116 113 107 100 94 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -54.5 -54.8 -55.3 -56.0 -56.6 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 6 3 2 1 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 48 46 43 45 42 42 45 44 45 48 51 51 40 34 34 32 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 12 11 10 8 6 4 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 40 44 45 40 24 0 -34 -62 -79 -76 -60 -41 -60 -23 -14 12 200 MB DIV 12 3 -8 12 19 -23 -18 -10 2 14 16 25 -41 -18 -11 -20 2 700-850 TADV 7 8 2 0 1 0 4 0 3 1 5 -8 -21 -20 -27 -19 -17 LAND (KM) 2125 2181 2228 2240 2248 2215 2173 2173 2106 1917 1796 1807 1995 1761 1357 971 596 LAT (DEG N) 26.6 26.4 26.2 25.8 25.5 25.4 26.0 27.4 29.2 31.2 33.1 34.6 35.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 43.5 42.8 42.2 41.9 41.7 42.0 42.7 43.4 43.7 43.2 41.6 38.7 34.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 4 2 2 7 8 10 11 13 16 20 20 21 19 17 HEAT CONTENT 14 16 17 21 24 24 17 15 17 12 9 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):110/ 8 CX,CY: 8/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 468 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. 0. 2. 5. 9. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. 17. 16. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. 8. 6. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -13. -17. -21. -23. -25. -25. -24. -24. -23. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 13. 15. 15. 16. 15. 15. 15. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 26.6 43.5 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072024 GORDON 09/20/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.56 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.74 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 177.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.74 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.17 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.6 27.0 to 143.0 0.53 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 64.3 109.2 to 0.0 0.41 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 13.6% 9.3% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 2.6% 2.7% 0.5% 0.0% 1.0% 0.8% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 5.6% 4.1% 2.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072024 GORDON 09/20/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072024 GORDON 09/20/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 31 31 32 33 34 36 38 40 40 41 40 40 40 43 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 28 29 30 31 33 35 37 37 38 37 37 37 40 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 23 24 25 26 28 30 32 32 33 32 32 32 35 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 16 17 18 20 22 24 24 25 24 24 24 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT