* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GORDON AL072024 09/20/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 27 28 30 32 35 37 39 39 38 36 34 31 31 32 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 27 28 30 32 35 37 39 39 38 36 34 31 29 33 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 29 31 34 37 39 39 37 35 29 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 13 11 9 8 4 6 4 3 5 16 23 30 36 48 50 53 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 2 0 0 -2 -3 0 0 1 4 11 12 13 11 6 SHEAR DIR 278 294 313 318 332 5 51 36 126 222 247 269 264 248 246 255 258 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.4 29.2 28.1 27.4 26.1 24.7 23.8 21.5 21.9 30.9 POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 131 130 130 133 136 143 156 140 132 120 109 104 91 92 177 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -54.4 -54.7 -54.4 -54.4 -54.9 -55.9 -56.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 7 4 2 2 2 2 1 2 700-500 MB RH 44 43 43 41 41 44 42 46 47 56 61 54 45 41 35 35 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 10 9 7 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 48 53 50 39 23 -6 -37 -55 -59 -51 -29 -5 0 -17 -19 -15 200 MB DIV 16 -3 23 15 5 -3 -8 -2 23 23 47 -12 -15 4 -9 4 6 700-850 TADV 10 2 1 1 1 2 2 4 3 13 -1 -7 -47 -71 -67 -57 -62 LAND (KM) 2071 2081 2083 2071 2064 2006 1975 2006 1967 1746 1634 1774 1754 1023 314 -248 103 LAT (DEG N) 26.2 25.8 25.4 25.1 24.9 24.9 25.9 27.7 30.0 32.5 34.9 36.5 37.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 43.9 43.6 43.4 43.4 43.4 44.0 44.8 45.5 45.4 44.2 41.4 36.6 29.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 2 2 4 8 11 13 14 19 25 32 33 31 28 27 HEAT CONTENT 12 13 14 15 16 17 13 14 21 10 5 0 0 0 0 0 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):165/ 5 CX,CY: 1/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 13. 16. 17. 17. 18. 18. 18. 18. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 8. 5. -0. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -14. -18. -21. -22. -23. -23. -23. -23. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -7. -7. -8. -8. -6. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 14. 13. 11. 9. 6. 6. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 26.2 43.9 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072024 GORDON 09/20/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.64 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.6 36.6 to 2.8 1.00 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.50 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 198.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.72 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.19 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.1 27.0 to 143.0 0.52 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 71.7 109.2 to 0.0 0.34 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 15.1% 10.4% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 5.6% 5.8% 3.2% 0.3% 2.8% 1.2% 5.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 6.9% 5.5% 3.6% 0.1% 0.9% 0.4% 1.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072024 GORDON 09/20/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072024 GORDON 09/20/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 27 28 30 32 35 37 39 39 38 36 34 31 29 33 18HR AGO 25 24 25 25 26 28 30 33 35 37 37 36 34 32 29 27 31 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 22 24 26 29 31 33 33 32 30 28 25 23 27 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 18 20 23 25 27 27 26 24 22 19 17 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT