* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* GORDON AL072024 09/21/24 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 28 29 30 32 35 36 36 34 31 28 27 N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 28 29 30 32 35 36 36 34 31 28 29 N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 28 30 32 34 35 34 31 29 N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 17 13 11 9 6 6 4 4 4 10 22 27 43 62 72 N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 1 1 0 -2 -2 2 1 6 10 14 9 12 N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 285 295 305 323 342 12 46 15 229 234 258 263 261 257 264 N/A N/A
SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.2 29.0 27.8 27.1 25.3 23.5 21.5 20.8 15.7 N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 130 132 132 134 139 153 136 129 114 103 93 91 78 N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -54.2 -54.4 -54.5 -54.5 -54.7 -54.9 N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 5 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 42 42 40 40 40 42 41 43 50 57 56 61 69 64 60 N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 9 9 8 6 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 42 48 44 35 27 0 -30 -64 -60 -69 -55 -31 -10 15 -54 N/A N/A
200 MB DIV -9 16 8 -6 -17 -25 -6 13 25 23 17 18 36 36 -118 N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 0 -2 0 0 0 3 0 6 3 7 0 -26 -16 80 50 N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 2217 2236 2237 2210 2178 2121 2116 1968 1729 1616 1760 1502 608 82 -216 N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 26.6 26.4 26.2 26.0 25.9 26.5 28.0 30.2 32.9 35.5 37.9 40.0 42.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 42.5 42.2 42.1 42.3 42.6 43.5 44.4 44.7 43.6 40.7 35.2 26.9 16.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 2 3 3 7 10 13 16 21 30 37 42 46 44 N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 17 17 18 18 17 14 13 20 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 5. 9. 12. 14. 15. 15. 16. 17. 20. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 12. 10. 7. 2. -4. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -14. -17. -19. -21. -21. -22. -22. -21. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -7. -7. -8. -8. -6. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 11. 11. 9. 6. 3. 2. 0. 0.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 26.6 42.5
** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072024 GORDON 09/21/24 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.65 2.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.11 0.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 36.6 to 2.8 1.00 2.3
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 0.7
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 202.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.72 1.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.13 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.2 27.0 to 143.0 0.51 0.4
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 85.1 109.2 to 0.0 0.22 -0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 15.0% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.9% 4.6% 5.3% 2.5% 0.2% 2.3% 0.9% 3.0%
Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 2.4% 6.6% 5.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 1.0%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072024 GORDON 09/21/24 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072024 GORDON 09/21/2024 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 27 28 29 30 32 35 36 36 34 31 28 29 DIS DIS
18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 26 27 28 30 33 34 34 32 29 26 27 DIS DIS
12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 24 25 27 30 31 31 29 26 23 24 DIS DIS
6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 17 18 20 23 24 24 22 19 16 17 DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT