* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOHN EP102024 09/23/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 68 73 77 84 94 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 68 73 77 84 72 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 69 76 81 87 77 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 8 7 2 1 1 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 8 4 3 2 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 71 69 89 270 237 32 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.8 30.9 30.8 30.5 30.2 29.7 29.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 169 167 164 157 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.6 -51.4 -51.5 -51.7 -50.8 -51.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 7 6 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 68 71 72 71 72 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 10 7 6 9 13 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 54 55 61 62 58 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 93 93 81 73 79 103 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -5 -1 -5 -3 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 178 137 95 58 28 -7 -34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.5 15.7 16.0 16.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 98.6 98.4 98.1 97.8 97.5 97.3 97.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 4 3 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 31 33 33 32 29 24 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 478 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 61.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 5. 8. 9. 9. 7. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -5. -3. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 11. 17. 16. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 13. 17. 24. 34. 35. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 14.6 98.6 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102024 JOHN 09/23/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.63 19.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 23.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 34.9 to 8.5 0.47 11.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 144.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 -20.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.57 12.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 17.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 13.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.27 3.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 5.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 -0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 59% is 9.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 87% is 6.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 86% is 9.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 84% is 13.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 64% is 15.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 79% is 11.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 61% is 10.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 41% is 8.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 59.1% 86.8% 85.8% 83.8% 64.2% 78.6% 61.2% 41.0% Logistic: 64.9% 87.6% 81.6% 80.4% 28.7% 86.1% 47.3% 9.7% Bayesian: 68.5% 78.5% 78.4% 78.1% 12.5% 57.8% 10.9% 1.3% Consensus: 64.2% 84.3% 81.9% 80.8% 35.1% 74.1% 39.8% 17.3% DTOPS: 31.0% 18.0% 15.0% 28.0% 18.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 47.6% 51.1% 48.4% 54.4% 26.5% 37.5% 19.9% 8.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102024 JOHN 09/23/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##