* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* JOHN EP102024 09/24/24 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 45 36 33 33 36 46 51 55 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 45 38 34 32 36 46 34 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 45 38 34 32 34 36 30 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 3 3 3 10 11 11 10 8 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -2 1 -3 -4 -3 -4 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 126 122 141 71 65 75 100 109 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 31.0 31.0 31.0 31.0 31.1 31.0 31.0 31.0 30.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 170 168 167 168 167 167 167 169 169 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.8 -50.5 -50.9 -51.0 -50.1 -50.6 -50.2 -50.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 7 6 9 6 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 70 71 71 69 71 69 72 70 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 12 12 13 13 14 13 14 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 86 82 86 90 89 92 92 93 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 81 80 80 80 91 112 136 112 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -6 -5 5 4 0 7 3 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) -72 -56 -36 -13 10 1 -43 -71 -109 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 17.7 17.7 17.7 17.5 17.2 17.2 17.5 18.1 18.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 100.3 100.6 101.0 101.0 101.0 100.8 100.5 101.0 101.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 7 3 2 2 2 2 2 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 42 42 42 42 43 43 42 41 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 472 (MEAN=586)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 40.5
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE -12. -19. -22. -23. -19. -16. -14. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 6. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 9. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
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TOTAL CHANGE -9. -12. -12. -9. 1. 6. 10. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.7 100.3
** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102024 JOHN 09/24/24 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.77 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -55.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 34.9 to 8.5 0.75 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 103.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.57 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.38 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.36 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
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SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.9% 43.5% 39.2% 28.6% 11.5% 11.4% 4.7% 96.8%
Consensus: 0.3% 14.7% 13.1% 9.6% 3.8% 3.8% 1.7% 32.3%
DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0%
SDCON: .1% 7.8% 6.5% 4.8% 1.9% 2.4% 1.3% 16.1%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102024 JOHN 09/24/24 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##