* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOHN EP102024 09/26/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 61 57 54 47 44 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 64 61 50 44 36 37 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 65 63 53 46 37 36 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 19 18 18 16 18 11 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 4 6 5 3 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 117 123 123 116 109 136 104 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.7 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.7 30.4 30.5 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 168 169 169 168 170 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -49.9 -50.4 -50.6 -50.1 -50.7 -51.1 -51.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.4 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 8 6 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 68 65 62 60 54 54 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 18 15 13 13 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 64 79 97 104 117 98 85 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 82 86 55 38 49 51 52 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 15 11 10 3 7 1 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 63 39 16 -4 -8 -10 66 221 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.8 18.1 18.4 18.7 19.3 19.9 20.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 102.7 102.9 103.1 103.4 103.7 104.7 106.1 107.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 4 5 6 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 43 43 43 43 43 45 44 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 413 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -5. -6. -10. -13. -18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -8. -11. -18. -21. -23. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 17.5 102.7 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102024 JOHN 09/26/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.60 5.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.1 34.9 to 8.5 0.18 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 228.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.65 -5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.47 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 4.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.38 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.4% 23.9% 18.9% 16.5% 13.9% 22.3% 16.8% 12.8% Logistic: 0.5% 2.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.0% 8.9% 6.6% 5.6% 4.7% 7.5% 5.6% 4.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.0% 4.4% 3.3% 2.8% 2.3% 3.7% 2.8% 2.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102024 JOHN 09/26/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##