* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL092024 09/27/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 74 70 66 58 44 31 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 57 44 36 32 28 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 56 43 35 31 28 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 34 39 32 18 18 30 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 0 -4 0 0 -2 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 230 227 210 197 209 230 248 236 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 27.3 26.8 24.8 20.9 21.2 21.1 22.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 132 124 104 80 79 79 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -48.3 -48.0 -47.8 -47.7 -48.3 -49.2 -50.0 -50.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 2.2 2.4 1.8 0.8 0.4 0.9 0.9 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 1 1 0 0 1 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 58 56 48 47 49 53 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 38 39 36 36 30 21 18 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 155 181 167 188 178 148 133 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 97 136 147 78 22 42 11 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 43 47 90 9 -4 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -157 -309 -510 -629 -714 -670 -713 -671 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.3 33.7 36.0 36.6 37.1 36.7 37.3 37.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 83.3 83.9 84.5 85.7 86.9 86.9 86.1 85.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 24 24 16 11 5 2 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 25 CX,CY: 6/ 24 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. -0. -3. -9. -16. -23. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -6. -5. -3. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -7. -15. -24. -34. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -10. -14. -22. -36. -49. -63. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 31.3 83.3 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092024 HELENE 09/27/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.30 0.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 40.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.17 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.03 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 356.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.56 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.57 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.1 27.0 to 143.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 59.0 109.2 to 0.0 0.46 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 6.2% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 2.1% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .7% 1.0% .6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092024 HELENE 09/27/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092024 HELENE 09/27/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 57 44 36 32 28 28 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 66 58 54 50 50 50 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 12HR AGO 80 77 76 68 64 60 60 60 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 66 62 62 62 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT