* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOHN EP102024 09/27/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 51 47 43 39 38 39 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 51 47 43 39 38 39 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 51 47 43 40 35 32 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 17 17 16 20 10 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 9 8 6 5 6 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 115 110 114 117 133 96 132 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.6 30.5 30.6 30.6 30.4 30.4 29.6 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 169 170 168 168 160 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.6 -50.3 -50.3 -50.7 -51.0 -51.4 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 8 8 6 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 65 61 60 57 57 55 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 13 13 10 8 6 7 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 84 98 108 110 100 82 77 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 50 39 53 63 70 41 30 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 10 4 3 7 0 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 64 39 15 37 39 106 199 260 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.0 18.3 18.6 18.9 19.4 20.2 20.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 103.0 103.3 103.6 104.3 104.9 106.2 107.6 109.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 6 7 7 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 43 43 43 43 43 41 37 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 434 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -12. -16. -17. -16. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 17.6 103.0 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102024 JOHN 09/27/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.69 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.5 34.9 to 8.5 0.09 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 241.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.63 -4.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.43 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 4.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.38 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.60 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 19.5% 15.0% 12.6% 10.6% 19.8% 15.9% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 6.7% 5.1% 4.2% 3.5% 6.6% 5.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102024 JOHN 09/27/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##