* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOHN EP102024 09/27/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 46 42 38 35 33 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 41 37 34 35 34 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 41 37 34 35 31 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 17 17 20 19 16 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 10 7 6 4 8 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 109 121 114 131 127 107 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.6 30.6 30.7 30.5 30.4 30.2 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 169 170 170 169 168 166 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.2 -50.1 -50.7 -51.0 -51.1 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 6 5 7 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 63 59 57 57 57 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 13 9 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 97 106 109 96 78 80 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 49 64 65 25 40 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 4 2 5 6 7 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 19 -16 -25 -10 20 115 242 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.5 19.0 19.2 19.4 19.8 20.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 102.9 103.3 103.8 104.5 105.2 106.6 108.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 7 7 7 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 43 43 43 45 45 41 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 470 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -3. -5. -7. -7. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -12. -15. -16. -17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 18.0 102.9 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102024 JOHN 09/27/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.74 6.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.1 34.9 to 8.5 0.03 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 231.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.64 -4.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.40 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.79 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.39 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.31 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 19.6% 14.6% 11.9% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 6.8% 4.9% 4.0% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.1% 3.4% 2.4% 2.0% 1.6% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102024 JOHN 09/27/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##