* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* JOHN EP102024 09/27/24 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 35 29 23 19 17 18 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 35 33 31 26 24 26 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 35 33 31 27 25 21 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 18 19 17 19 17 13 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 6 3 4 8 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 113 119 129 124 110 106 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 30.6 30.7 30.6 30.4 30.5 29.9 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 169 170 170 168 169 164 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.2 -50.9 -51.1 -51.2 -51.6 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 6 5 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 63 60 59 59 59 58 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 13 10 8 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 107 111 99 78 77 77 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 59 87 63 28 31 33 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 3 6 1 5 3 -3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) -1 4 5 16 57 173 284 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.7 19.0 19.3 19.5 20.0 20.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 103.2 103.8 104.4 105.1 105.7 107.3 109.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 7 7 7 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 43 43 44 44 44 39 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=586)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 1. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -8. -9. -8. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
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TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -16. -18. -17. -15. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.3 103.2
** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102024 JOHN 09/27/24 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.87 5.9
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 0.2
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.3 34.9 to 8.5 0.06 0.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 157.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 -4.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.43 2.1
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 1.8
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.39 1.1
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.1
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 -0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 13.4% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.7% 4.5% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SDCON: .3% 2.2% 1.6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102024 JOHN 09/27/24 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##