* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* KIRK AL122024 10/02/24 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 70 75 81 87 93 98 102 102 101 97 92 85 83 83 75 67 62
V (KT) LAND 70 75 81 87 93 98 102 102 101 97 92 85 83 83 75 67 62
V (KT) LGEM 70 74 78 83 88 96 102 107 108 102 92 80 73 69 60 52 47
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP
SHEAR (KT) 8 8 4 2 3 6 8 12 20 29 31 24 23 36 28 28 33
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 4 4 2 3 0 6 6 7 4 5 4 11 10 13 3
SHEAR DIR 339 334 110 102 258 282 288 274 246 252 246 228 237 217 224 230 212
SST (C) 28.5 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.8 29.2 29.5 29.6 29.2 28.1 27.3 26.1 24.0 21.8 20.1 19.9
POT. INT. (KT) 144 147 150 149 146 148 155 160 163 156 140 131 119 103 91 83 83
200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -51.5 -51.7 -51.9 -51.0 -51.4 -50.5 -51.0 -50.5 -50.9 -50.9 -52.3 -51.8 -51.9 -51.2 -51.3
200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.9 1.6 2.2 0.6 0.3 1.6 1.0
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 7 5 3 1 0 1 1 1
700-500 MB RH 66 68 69 67 64 62 63 63 67 66 70 71 77 68 54 47 50
MODEL VTX (KT) 28 29 31 31 33 33 36 37 40 42 44 43 46 51 49 46 42
850 MB ENV VOR 62 61 63 69 71 72 75 66 62 51 53 58 104 139 217 226 242
200 MB DIV 71 79 98 83 111 88 50 54 95 115 77 112 151 162 93 31 34
700-850 TADV -1 0 2 2 1 0 -1 9 27 49 68 38 28 -43 -40 -7 -36
LAND (KM) 1786 1784 1786 1777 1727 1641 1550 1468 1474 1605 1824 1497 1239 1213 1455 1482 1035
LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.8 18.4 18.9 19.4 20.6 21.8 23.3 25.3 27.7 30.4 33.7 37.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 41.7 42.4 43.2 43.9 44.6 46.1 47.6 49.0 50.1 50.5 50.1 48.2 44.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 9 9 10 10 11 13 16 20 24 26 25 22 22
HEAT CONTENT 24 25 26 26 26 27 28 32 25 20 10 4 2 2 2 2 2
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 38.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -4. -7. -11. -15. -17.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 2. 6. 8. 12. 14. 16. 15. 18. 23. 19. 12. 7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 12. 9. 6. 2. -1. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 23. 28. 32. 32. 31. 27. 22. 15. 13. 13. 5. -3. -8.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 17.2 41.7
** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122024 KIRK 10/02/24 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 9.6
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.74 5.5
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.16 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.91 5.2
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 3.3
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 1.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 278.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.64 2.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.54 1.6
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.2 27.0 to 143.0 0.36 0.7
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 109.2 to 0.0 0.99 -0.2
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 3.9 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 12.3% 42.8% 30.1% 22.5% 17.8% 23.3% 18.6% 19.4%
Logistic: 13.9% 26.9% 15.6% 10.4% 5.8% 9.0% 6.1% 2.2%
Bayesian: 14.4% 21.4% 12.9% 7.8% 4.0% 2.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Consensus: 13.5% 30.3% 19.5% 13.6% 9.2% 11.4% 8.3% 7.2%
DTOPS: 44.0% 72.0% 45.0% 30.0% 19.0% 52.0% 51.0% 25.0%
SDCON: 28.7% 51.1% 32.2% 21.8% 14.1% 31.7% 29.6% 16.1%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122024 KIRK 10/02/24 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122024 KIRK 10/02/2024 06 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 4 8( 12) 14( 24) 21( 40) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 3 31( 33) 37( 58) 47( 78) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 75 81 87 93 98 102 102 101 97 92 85 83 83 75 67 62
18HR AGO 70 69 75 81 87 92 96 96 95 91 86 79 77 77 69 61 56
12HR AGO 70 67 66 72 78 83 87 87 86 82 77 70 68 68 60 52 47
6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 66 71 75 75 74 70 65 58 56 56 48 40 35
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT