* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* KIRK AL122024 10/02/24 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 75 81 88 94 99 103 103 101 99 96 88 84 86 80 72 61 61
V (KT) LAND 75 81 88 94 99 103 103 101 99 96 88 84 86 80 72 61 61
V (KT) LGEM 75 81 86 91 95 100 103 105 105 97 85 79 77 68 56 48 44
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP
SHEAR (KT) 8 1 3 8 9 6 14 15 28 28 24 19 26 37 52 55 40
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 6 3 0 0 3 1 6 5 7 1 4 11 14 7 7 12
SHEAR DIR 332 18 215 257 269 310 274 261 258 257 230 237 240 232 242 247 241
SST (C) 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.4 29.6 29.4 28.7 27.6 26.8 25.0 24.1 21.7 20.6 19.0
POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 149 147 147 150 158 162 160 149 134 126 110 104 90 85 80
200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.3 -51.8 -52.0 -51.6 -51.3 -51.0 -50.8 -50.8 -50.5 -51.2 -51.6 -52.1 -52.3 -50.9 -50.7 -50.5
200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.1 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.9
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 4 3 1 1 0 1 1
700-500 MB RH 66 69 68 65 63 64 61 66 64 66 66 72 69 58 53 49 55
MODEL VTX (KT) 28 29 31 33 34 34 35 36 39 42 42 44 50 51 47 41 42
850 MB ENV VOR 61 64 71 72 71 77 65 73 54 49 55 124 128 168 245 283 262
200 MB DIV 90 111 88 102 85 100 40 61 83 83 99 119 164 103 33 49 48
700-850 TADV 3 2 1 2 3 0 2 11 36 58 37 46 96 -7 8 27 25
LAND (KM) 1765 1765 1770 1725 1686 1597 1500 1442 1498 1705 1625 1339 1222 1344 1659 1240 819
LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.2 18.7 19.4 20.0 21.1 22.4 24.1 26.3 29.0 32.3 35.6 38.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 42.6 43.3 43.9 44.6 45.3 46.9 48.3 49.7 50.6 50.5 49.4 46.7 42.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 9 9 9 10 11 13 15 18 21 24 26 24 21 20
HEAT CONTENT 25 26 27 26 26 28 30 29 23 16 6 3 2 2 2 2 2
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 37.8
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -14. -18. -22. -24.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4.
PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 5. 6. 10. 14. 13. 15. 22. 22. 16. 6. 7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 8. 12. 12. 9. 6. 2. -1. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -9.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 19. 24. 28. 28. 26. 24. 21. 13. 9. 11. 5. -3. -14. -14.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 17.7 42.6
** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122024 KIRK 10/02/24 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 11.3
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.75 6.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.17 1.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.87 5.4
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 3.3
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.47 1.6
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 313.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.60 2.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.57 1.8
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.9 27.0 to 143.0 0.31 0.6
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.2 109.2 to 0.0 0.99 -0.2
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 4.2 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 16.8% 45.4% 33.2% 23.0% 17.8% 24.6% 19.3% 18.3%
Logistic: 18.2% 33.6% 20.0% 11.6% 6.0% 10.1% 5.8% 1.5%
Bayesian: 29.4% 23.7% 11.8% 11.5% 5.5% 1.6% 0.5% 0.0%
Consensus: 21.5% 34.2% 21.7% 15.3% 9.8% 12.1% 8.5% 6.6%
DTOPS: 40.0% 83.0% 66.0% 53.0% 46.0% 69.0% 37.0% 4.0%
SDCON: 30.7% 58.6% 43.8% 34.1% 27.9% 40.5% 22.7% 5.3%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122024 KIRK 10/02/24 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122024 KIRK 10/02/2024 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 5 11( 15) 21( 33) 25( 50) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 8 39( 44) 32( 62) 59( 84) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 81 88 94 99 103 103 101 99 96 88 84 86 80 72 61 61
18HR AGO 75 74 81 87 92 96 96 94 92 89 81 77 79 73 65 54 54
12HR AGO 75 72 71 77 82 86 86 84 82 79 71 67 69 63 55 44 44
6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 70 74 74 72 70 67 59 55 57 51 43 32 32
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR 75 81 88 79 73 69 69 67 65 62 54 50 52 46 38 27 27