* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* KIRK AL122024 10/03/24 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 110 112 113 112 111 107 98 96 90 87 83 70 71 67 58 N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 110 112 113 112 111 107 98 96 90 87 83 70 71 67 58 N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 110 110 110 110 110 110 106 97 87 80 69 57 51 47 42 N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 7 5 10 14 15 16 20 29 27 38 46 45 44 49 44 N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 2 -1 0 8 6 3 5 7 15 9 1 -6 -4 N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 265 288 281 285 280 252 255 249 236 242 232 243 238 243 253 N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.1 28.0 26.9 25.4 24.2 21.8 19.8 18.2 15.4 N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 148 151 155 159 161 163 155 139 127 114 105 91 84 81 76 N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.7 -51.4 -51.0 -50.7 -51.2 -50.2 -50.2 -50.5 -51.4 -51.5 -50.7 -49.4 -50.2 -52.0 N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.7 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.8 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.1 0.8 2.3 1.6 0.6 N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 8 8 7 5 3 1 1 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 62 62 63 64 64 64 65 70 75 74 68 61 64 73 75 N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 34 34 34 35 37 39 38 43 44 46 49 44 47 44 36 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 64 62 57 55 55 40 33 39 122 148 227 263 309 310 182 N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 94 77 39 40 60 66 73 79 146 176 167 4 48 82 61 N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -1 -6 -3 0 8 29 49 70 22 66 -11 4 -87 -66 -23 N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1628 1592 1533 1493 1463 1478 1649 1747 1443 1265 1356 1711 1185 569 34 N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 20.7 21.3 21.9 22.8 23.6 25.5 28.1 31.2 34.6 38.3 41.9 44.5 45.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 46.3 47.0 47.8 48.5 49.2 50.2 50.3 49.3 46.7 42.6 37.3 30.9 23.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 11 11 15 18 23 26 27 26 29 33 33 N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 27 28 28 30 31 24 18 7 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.5
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. -0. -7. -16. -25. -34. -43. -50. -56. -62. -65. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -10. -8. -6. -3. -0. 5. 10. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 3. 8. 9. 13. 16. 8. 12. 6. -5. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 2. 1. -3. -12. -14. -20. -23. -27. -40. -38. -43. -52. 0. 0.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 20.7 46.3
** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122024 KIRK 10/03/24 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.9
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.65 1.9
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.19 0.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 2.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.36 0.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.38 0.5
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 558.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.35 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.42 0.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.2 27.0 to 143.0 0.05 0.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 14.3% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 3.6% 2.8% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Bayesian: 3.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 4.7% 6.1% 4.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
DTOPS: 7.0% 10.0% 11.0% 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SDCON: 5.8% 8.0% 7.5% 2.6% .5% .5% .1% 0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122024 KIRK 10/03/24 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122024 KIRK 10/03/2024 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 29 30( 50) 29( 65) 27( 74) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 53 80( 91) 67( 97) 21( 98) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 112 113 112 111 107 98 96 90 87 83 70 71 67 58 DIS DIS
18HR AGO 110 109 110 109 108 104 95 93 87 84 80 67 68 64 55 DIS DIS
12HR AGO 110 107 106 105 104 100 91 89 83 80 76 63 64 60 51 DIS DIS
6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 99 95 86 84 78 75 71 58 59 55 46 DIS DIS
NOW 110 101 95 92 91 87 78 76 70 67 63 50 51 47 38 DIS DIS
IN 6HR 110 112 103 97 94 92 83 81 75 72 68 55 56 52 43 DIS DIS
IN 12HR 110 112 113 104 98 94 85 83 77 74 70 57 58 54 45 DIS DIS