* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* LESLIE AL132024 10/04/24 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 56 58 62 68 74 75 80 82 84 90 90 92 94 94 94
V (KT) LAND 50 53 56 58 62 68 74 75 80 82 84 90 90 92 94 94 94
V (KT) LGEM 50 52 55 57 59 66 73 77 78 78 77 78 80 82 82 79 74
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 13 16 15 9 5 5 8 4 9 0 3 7 12 15 17 17 28
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 4 7 7 4 2 8 7 10 5 2 1 4 10 15 6
SHEAR DIR 20 32 36 34 58 168 221 203 206 241 215 284 298 297 317 347 30
SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.6 29.3 29.0 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.4
POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 156 159 163 165 162 157 152 152 150 152 160 163 164 158
200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.0 -52.6 -52.3 -52.7 -52.0 -52.1
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.4
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 11 10
700-500 MB RH 75 73 72 71 69 68 66 59 60 54 53 51 53 51 52 48 51
MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 19 20 21 22 21 24 25 25 27 27 28 29 29 29
850 MB ENV VOR 15 18 25 29 33 39 39 25 17 -1 -20 -35 -41 -42 -49 -74 -99
200 MB DIV 22 2 27 33 15 24 74 70 14 15 -1 24 10 2 -35 -15 -1
700-850 TADV 0 1 1 1 1 2 3 6 1 -1 0 1 5 9 14 9 9
LAND (KM) 1639 1623 1609 1596 1587 1606 1682 1692 1664 1644 1637 1589 1521 1437 1334 1260 1211
LAT (DEG N) 9.7 9.9 10.1 10.3 10.5 11.1 12.1 13.1 14.4 15.8 17.3 18.9 20.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 32.2 32.9 33.5 34.2 34.9 36.2 37.6 38.8 40.2 42.0 44.0 45.8 47.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 12 12 11 10 9 8 9 9
HEAT CONTENT 24 23 22 21 21 21 22 24 25 26 30 29 29 31 35 33 29
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.3
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 12. 16. 20. 24. 27. 30. 31. 33. 33. 34. 34.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -0. 2. 2. 4. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 1. 4. 5. 4. 6. 4. 6. 6. 4. 4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 12. 18. 24. 25. 30. 32. 35. 40. 40. 42. 44. 44. 44.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 9.7 32.2
** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132024 LESLIE 10/04/24 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.55 1.7
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.14 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.4
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.2
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 0.7
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 139.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.78 1.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.23 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.4 27.0 to 143.0 0.65 0.5
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 17.6% 11.4% 8.6% 6.1% 12.5% 13.7% 20.3%
Logistic: 7.2% 19.6% 11.4% 9.6% 8.8% 16.6% 18.8% 14.3%
Bayesian: 1.5% 27.4% 5.1% 0.6% 0.6% 3.5% 12.0% 3.3%
Consensus: 4.3% 21.5% 9.3% 6.3% 5.2% 10.9% 14.8% 12.7%
DTOPS: 5.0% 11.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% 7.0%
SDCON: 4.6% 16.2% 7.6% 5.1% 3.6% 5.9% 8.9% 9.8%
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132024 LESLIE 10/04/2024 06 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 53 56 58 62 68 74 75 80 82 84 90 90 92 94 94 94
18HR AGO 50 49 52 54 58 64 70 71 76 78 80 86 86 88 90 90 90
12HR AGO 50 47 46 48 52 58 64 65 70 72 74 80 80 82 84 84 84
6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 44 50 56 57 62 64 66 72 72 74 76 76 76
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT