* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* LESLIE AL132024 10/05/24 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 70 72 74 76 76 73 69 67 65 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 67
V (KT) LAND 70 72 74 76 76 73 69 67 65 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 67
V (KT) LGEM 70 72 73 73 72 69 65 61 58 57 57 59 60 60 57 53 49
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 6 8 9 11 14 17 10 14 8 6 6 13 22 29 30 25 15
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 8 5 4 7 4 8 3 5 6 5 4 9 4 6 2 2
SHEAR DIR 322 260 246 223 214 208 197 163 208 223 309 299 2 47 58 74 81
SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.4 28.9 28.6 28.9 28.8 29.1 29.5 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.3 29.2
POT. INT. (KT) 159 161 161 161 161 158 150 146 151 148 153 159 163 161 160 154 153
200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -53.5 -53.1 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8
200 MB VXT (C) -1.0 -0.9 -0.4 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 7 6 7 7 9 9 10 9 10 9 10 9
700-500 MB RH 63 61 62 65 63 57 56 54 53 53 52 53 53 51 54 58 58
MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 19 19 19 18 17 16 15 13 12 11 11 11 12 12 10
850 MB ENV VOR 38 32 36 34 37 27 13 -15 -42 -55 -56 -67 -94 -120 -146 -147 -85
200 MB DIV 28 52 59 68 71 38 -9 21 -8 16 5 -6 -51 0 -5 22 24
700-850 TADV 1 2 2 1 1 3 3 3 5 4 5 6 8 9 11 5 5
LAND (KM) 1625 1653 1684 1717 1753 1760 1733 1723 1742 1638 1535 1434 1370 1335 1336 1375 1472
LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.4 11.8 12.3 12.7 14.0 15.4 16.7 18.4 19.8 20.8 21.9 23.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 35.0 35.6 36.1 36.7 37.3 38.7 40.3 42.0 43.9 45.7 47.4 48.8 49.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 10 10 11 12 10 9 8 7 7 5 4 5
HEAT CONTENT 20 20 20 21 22 26 25 25 27 27 29 31 33 30 27 25 21
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.2
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. 10.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -0. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -17. -19. -18. -19. -18. -17. -19.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
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TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 6. 3. -1. -3. -5. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -3.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 10.9 35.0
** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132024 LESLIE 10/05/24 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.2
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.54 1.8
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.13 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 1.9
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 1.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.33 0.5
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 316.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.60 0.9
D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.39 0.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.53 0.4
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.6 109.2 to 0.0 0.92 -0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 19.5% 12.0% 9.3% 7.4% 11.9% 10.4% 13.3%
Logistic: 5.7% 11.5% 6.0% 8.8% 6.2% 12.1% 6.5% 2.4%
Bayesian: 5.3% 31.9% 12.1% 0.7% 0.9% 6.1% 2.1% 0.0%
Consensus: 6.1% 21.0% 10.0% 6.3% 4.8% 10.0% 6.3% 5.2%
DTOPS: 4.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
SDCON: 5.0% 12.5% 6.0% 4.1% 2.9% 5.0% 3.1% 3.1%
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132024 LESLIE 10/05/2024 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 4 5( 9) 5( 13) 4( 17) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 1( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 72 74 76 76 73 69 67 65 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 67
18HR AGO 70 69 71 73 73 70 66 64 62 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 64
12HR AGO 70 67 66 68 68 65 61 59 57 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 59
6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 60 57 53 51 49 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 51
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT