* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* KIRK AL122024 10/05/24 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 105 101 98 94 89 81 69 48 29 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 105 101 98 94 89 81 69 48 29 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 105 101 95 90 87 80 67 52 42 35 32 29 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 21 22 22 24 27 31 38 42 45 44 37 28 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 7 5 7 7 14 13 5 6 6 9 11 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 246 244 230 217 220 227 235 257 259 258 237 200 184 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.9 28.1 27.7 27.3 27.1 24.9 24.2 22.5 20.9 18.6 18.0 5.2 5.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 153 141 136 131 129 109 105 96 90 82 80 68 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.0 -51.2 -51.5 -51.3 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -51.4 -51.4 -51.7 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.9 1.8 2.3 1.2 0.2 0.8 0.1 0.5 1.3 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 4 3 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 62 65 70 72 73 70 61 50 47 53 58 67 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 42 43 44 44 43 48 48 41 35 30 27 26 25 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 35 35 62 74 112 111 110 154 199 202 199 225 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 116 74 86 113 145 191 136 -23 8 9 32 21 -89 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 53 72 57 53 51 34 -30 -62 -77 -41 23 4 -53 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1702 1823 1638 1470 1315 1177 1380 1617 816 305 -32 -22 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 28.7 30.5 32.2 34.0 35.7 39.2 42.0 43.4 44.4 46.2 49.1 53.0 57.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 50.2 49.8 49.3 48.2 47.1 42.8 36.9 29.2 19.2 9.5 0.9 -5.8 -10.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 17 18 19 20 22 25 27 33 36 34 30 27 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 15 8 5 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 16 CX,CY: 0/ 16
T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 712 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -9. -19. -31. -42. -53. -60. -57. -53. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -11. -14. -19. -22. -21. -20. -14. -7. -1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 5. -4. -14. -23. -29. -31. -33. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -1. -0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -11. -16. -24. -36. -57. -76. -88. -91. -82. -74. 0. 0. 0. 0.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 28.7 50.2
** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122024 KIRK 10/05/24 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 38.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.22 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.04 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.42 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 351.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.56 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 106.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.62 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.2 27.0 to 143.0 0.00 0.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.1 109.2 to 0.0 0.93 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SDCON: .8% .1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122024 KIRK 10/05/24 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122024 KIRK 10/05/2024 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 27 21( 42) 11( 49) 8( 53) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 1 0( 1) 0( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 101 98 94 89 81 69 48 29 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
18HR AGO 105 104 101 97 92 84 72 51 32 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
12HR AGO 105 102 101 97 92 84 72 51 32 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 90 82 70 49 30 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW 105 96 90 87 86 78 66 45 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
IN 6HR 105 101 92 86 83 76 64 43 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
IN 12HR 105 101 98 89 83 79 67 46 27 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS