* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* MILTON AL142024 10/06/24 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 50 58 65 72 80 89 95 96 93 82 69 51 35 22 15 N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 50 58 65 72 80 89 95 96 93 71 54 36 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 50 57 64 72 79 91 99 104 102 81 59 44 32 24 18 N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 5 4 10 14 12 18 16 22 30 44 46 58 61 59 48 42 36
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 4 1 0 0 0 7 5 4 0 3 0 3 4 7 2
SHEAR DIR 253 210 208 219 222 220 241 238 242 234 239 226 236 240 248 247 248
SST (C) 31.3 31.2 31.1 31.1 31.1 31.1 30.8 30.7 30.1 30.0 29.9 28.5 27.4 27.8 27.6 27.8 28.4
POT. INT. (KT) 168 169 169 170 170 171 172 172 172 171 169 145 130 134 132 135 144
200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.4 -51.2 -51.3 -51.5 -51.0 -51.2 -50.6 -50.2 -49.9 -50.0 -50.3 -51.2 -51.8 -52.3 -52.6 -53.0
200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 1.0 1.2 1.6 2.1 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 7 7 8 7 7 5 5 1 1 2 3 3 4 4
700-500 MB RH 74 71 69 65 63 58 52 46 44 47 46 38 36 35 42 49 56
MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 15 17 20 22 26 28 32 32 30 25 20 16 13 11 8
850 MB ENV VOR 25 34 40 53 56 54 67 115 115 99 84 58 19 4 -36 -67 -74
200 MB DIV 0 3 16 11 9 34 14 23 53 82 31 0 12 4 -9 26 4
700-850 TADV -2 -3 -7 -8 -7 -8 -5 -2 6 2 -25 -44 -27 -32 -13 8 19
LAND (KM) 279 333 384 322 262 173 204 335 222 -10 137 431 543 705 884 1104 1367
LAT (DEG N) 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.4 22.6 23.4 24.7 26.3 27.8 29.1 30.1 30.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 94.8 94.2 93.7 93.0 92.4 90.7 88.7 86.5 84.5 82.3 79.4 76.4 73.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 6 7 9 11 12 12 13 14 14 13 11 11 12 14
HEAT CONTENT 47 46 45 45 44 37 34 63 28 23 50 27 16 13 12 12 11
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 62.5
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. 11. 9. 7. 6.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -5. -10. -15. -20. -26. -29. -32. -33.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -7. -7.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 20. 21. 18. 10. 1. -5. -9. -12. -15.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL 2. 6. 10. 16. 23. 23. 18. 11. 4. -3. -8. -12. -15. -15. -16. -17.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 8. 15. 22. 30. 39. 45. 46. 43. 32. 19. 1. -15. -28. -35. -41. -47.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 22.5 94.8
** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142024 MILTON 10/06/24 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 13.4
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.72 6.3
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.29 2.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 5.1
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 3.2
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.44 1.6
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 145.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.78 3.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.17 0.6
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.80 1.7
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 4.8 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 36% is 7.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 12.0% 52.0% 36.9% 24.9% 16.4% 36.5% 26.2% 19.8%
Logistic: 26.0% 39.6% 37.9% 22.9% 6.2% 11.9% 4.4% 0.7%
Bayesian: 16.5% 11.0% 15.9% 17.5% 6.3% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Consensus: 18.2% 34.2% 30.2% 21.8% 9.7% 16.6% 10.2% 6.9%
DTOPS: 30.0% 81.0% 58.0% 34.0% 11.0% 91.0% 89.0% 50.0%
SDCON: 24.1% 57.6% 44.1% 27.9% 10.3% 53.8% 49.6% 28.4%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142024 MILTON 10/06/24 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142024 MILTON 10/06/2024 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 2( 2) 7( 9) 11( 19) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 2( 6) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 58 65 72 80 89 95 96 93 71 54 36 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS
18HR AGO 50 49 56 63 71 80 86 87 84 62 45 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
12HR AGO 50 47 46 53 61 70 76 77 74 52 35 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 48 57 63 64 61 39 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT