* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* KIRK AL122024 10/07/24 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 65 60 56 50 43 30 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 65 60 56 50 43 30 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 65 59 54 48 43 35 28 23 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 29 39 46 41 41 45 43 45 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 3 5 5 4 3 5 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 227 231 241 248 251 261 262 245 220 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 24.9 24.0 24.2 23.1 22.5 21.3 19.3 16.9 5.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 110 103 104 97 95 91 85 79 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -53.1 -53.0 -52.4 -53.0 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 2.2 1.8 1.2 0.2 -0.2 0.7 0.1 0.4 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 65 62 56 53 45 44 52 55 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 46 47 46 43 39 32 29 23 19 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 106 98 109 122 136 187 180 201 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 197 162 81 6 -15 21 -5 34 -39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 42 18 -19 -44 -59 -81 -58 42 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1176 1270 1402 1617 1667 961 203 -39 -403 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 39.5 40.8 42.0 42.7 43.3 43.4 44.3 46.8 49.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 42.4 39.5 36.6 33.2 29.8 21.1 11.1 1.4 -8.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 26 25 25 26 29 34 36 37 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 26 CX,CY: 20/ 17
T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -13. -16. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -9. -10. -12. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -3. -6. -13. -20. -31. -40. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -3. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -15. -22. -35. -50. -62. -64. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 39.5 42.4
** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122024 KIRK 10/07/24 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 999.0
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 54.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.01 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.85 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 216.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.70 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.53 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.2 27.0 to 143.0 0.00 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 92.3 109.2 to 0.0 0.16 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
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SHIPS-RII: 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SDCON: .2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%