* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* LESLIE AL132024 10/08/24 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 64 64 63 62 56 48 40 35 33 34 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 65 64 64 64 63 62 56 48 40 35 33 34 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 65 63 62 60 59 58 57 53 46 39 34 33 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 13 8 10 11 5 11 30 38 32 27 12 13 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 10 9 4 5 1 10 4 7 -4 0 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 191 197 171 184 216 338 1 23 23 20 360 261 288 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.0 26.3 25.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 130 131 130 131 132 131 130 129 125 119 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -52.8 -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 4 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 45 45 43 43 45 44 43 49 59 55 59 51 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 18 17 16 16 15 14 12 10 8 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -27 -38 -49 -48 -54 -59 -74 -97 -69 -65 -60 -81 -107 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV -4 0 10 1 11 -8 -30 -21 -23 -5 -3 -1 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 1 1 1 5 4 2 4 3 4 4 13 -2 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1757 1716 1667 1630 1597 1536 1474 1446 1514 1666 1906 1940 1853 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.3 20.0 20.7 21.3 22.3 23.0 24.0 25.4 26.9 28.5 30.5 32.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 43.8 44.6 45.5 46.3 47.0 47.9 48.8 49.6 49.7 49.0 47.3 44.6 41.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 10 8 6 6 6 8 9 13 17 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 27 27 26 27 27 27 30 28 23 18 12 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 13 CX,CY: -9/ 8
T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.6
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. -1. -5. -8. -10. -9. -7. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -18. -22. -24. -25. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -9. -17. -25. -30. -32. -31. -34. 0. 0. 0. 0.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 18.5 43.8
** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132024 LESLIE 10/08/24 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.2
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.52 1.6
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.17 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 2.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 1.4
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.70 0.9
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 600.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.31 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.15 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.2 27.0 to 143.0 0.25 0.2
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 56.1 109.2 to 0.0 0.49 -0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 15.0% 10.2% 8.3% 0.0% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 9.0% 5.7% 5.3% 4.2% 1.6% 3.6% 0.9% 0.1%
Bayesian: 2.4% 2.2% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 6.1% 7.6% 5.9% 4.2% 0.5% 5.0% 0.3% 0.0%
DTOPS: 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0%
SDCON: 4.0% 4.8% 3.9% 2.6% .7% 3.0% .1% .5%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132024 LESLIE 10/08/24 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132024 LESLIE 10/08/2024 06 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 1 0( 1) 0( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 64 64 64 63 62 56 48 40 35 33 34 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS
18HR AGO 65 64 64 64 63 62 56 48 40 35 33 34 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS
12HR AGO 65 62 61 61 60 59 53 45 37 32 30 31 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS
6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 54 53 47 39 31 26 24 25 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT